Scientists May Soon Be Able To Accurately Predict Incoming Earthquakes On Longer Timeframe

An international team of scientists is working on a ground-breaking project that will utilize computer models to predict the likelihood of an earthquake occurring and its anticipated impact, similar to how weather forecasters do it, but on a longer timeframe.

The National Science Foundation-funded initiative will develop new computing tools, software, and instructional material for forecast modeling, with a goal of completing it within a five-year period.

The team, headed by the University of Texas at Austin, will also train students, run seminars, and recruit new computational geoscientists by tapping into neglected talent pools and contacting underserved areas.

A significant percentage of the project's resources are dedicated to teaching a new generation of students who will benefit the project and the geosciences in general.

"Reviewers and the NSF Frontier Research in the Earth Sciences program are genuinely excited about the potential of a physics-based model of megathrusts, and the prospect of predictive models," Dennis Geist, program director in the Division of Earth Sciences at the NSF, said.

The UT scientists will collaborate with academics from universities and national labs working on three earthquake hotspots across the world: the Pacific Northwest of the U.S., New Zealand and Japan.

While the team does not expect earthquake "weather" forecasts in the next five years, they believe the concept is theoretically feasible. The majority of what's left is figuring out the physics regulating earthquakes and the inherent uncertainties that come with them, which are crucial components in the forecasting process.

However, they're difficult to study because they're usually offshore and driven by deep geologic processes that unfold over hundreds to millions of years, at scales ranging from fractions of an inch to thousands of miles.

To simulate faults and their tectonic settings, earthquake scientists use computers. The new research will try out physics gaps and determine what needs to be quantified to improve forecasting simulations.

All of the locations chosen are subduction zones, or areas where tectonic plates meet. Researchers will test their models and determine what conditions to look for when determining whether an earthquake is likely based on the differences between them.