China is on its way to becoming the world's largest economy, surpassing the United States by 2030 according to the latest analysis of 75 economies in developing, emerging, and frontier economies conducted by HSBC.
HSBC Holdings Plc predicts that China's gross domestic product will reach $26 trillion in 2030 from $14.1 trillion at present. The United States' GDP, on the other hand, will only reach $25.2 trillion in 2030 from $20.4 trillion at present.
The study also suggests that China will single-handedly bring the biggest contribution to global growth. Other economies on track for rapid economic growth are Bangladesh, the Philippines, India, Pakistan, and Vietnam.
The data from HSBC Holdings Plc points to China's population as the major driver of its booming economy.
The finding from HSBC underscored similar points highlighted in a separate study released by the International Monetary Fund in June.
IMF said China's strong GDP growth continues as the country was able to improve the lives of 800 million citizens. The nation has taken them out from poverty and now they enjoy upper middle-income status.
China's population has also been significant in making the nation a global digital leader in e-commerce and fintech, IMF said. The nation has 700 million internet users and 282 million internet users who are less than 25 years old who are willing to learn new technology.
HSBC noted that China and India will account for 35 percent of the global population by 2030. Africa, meanwhile, is never far behind as the continent has a fast-growing working-age populace. With this, HSBC predicts that India will be the world's third largest economy by 2030, superseding Germany and Japan. The Southeast Asian nation is currently at number 7.
On the other hand, developed countries will find their aging population to be affecting their economic growth significantly. Europe's working age population is diminishing by 0.5 percent annually; hence, Austria and Norway are expected to be removed from the top 30 economies by 2030. Denmark will fall down below the top 40 due to similar factor.
Still, the United States, Germany, and Japan will remain at the top 10 because of their better education, health care policy, and their rule of law and technology despite their aging population.
The HSBC Holdings Plc study also noted that emerging countries have accounted for about half of the global growth over the last ten years. These economies will continue to contribute as much as 70 percent of the world growth in the years to come.
