KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) beef and chicken farmers might benefit from the soaring prices of pork as China culls pig products resulting in shortages in common pork products like bacon and sausages.
According to Dutch bank, Rabob and, as much as half of China's 400 million pig population may be culled as the authorities have so far failed to curb the spread of African swine fever (ASF). The disease is now spreading in its Asian neighbors including Mongolia, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos.
The disease, known to be deadly to pigs but harmless to humans, was first reported in north-east China in August of 2018. There are 124 outbreaks reported since it was first detected in August. The African swine fever spread in every province in China except the southern island of Hainan.
Rabobank also predicted that China's production will fall by around 30% or 16 million tonnes to some 38 million tonnes this year compared with 54 million tonnes last year. According to the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics data, it would be the lowest level within at least 20 years. The report indicated that about 16 million tonnes of other animal or vegetable protein are needed as pork replacement.
China's local production and imports of other animal proteins including poultry, beef, mutton, and seafood are expected to increase ta answer the demand.
KZN farmers are expected to benefit from the increasing prices of the products. KZN also expects to benefit from the drop in prices in soya bean because of the declining demand from China.
According to Gert Blignaut, the chief operations Officer at Beefmaster Group said that the African swine fever outbreak provides an opportunity for the South African beef industry provided that its foot and mouth (FMD disease-free status is restored for China to continue importing from South Africa.
He added that it is a step in the right direction, but they need to regain the country's FMD-free status to avoid further delays, which could have negative consequences on their economy and the beef industry if not restored soon. He added that it would be positive for the South African economy to yet again get a slice of the pie when it comes to the export of beef products.
According to Wandile Sihlobo, the economist at the Agricultural Business Council, within the Chinese agricultural market, South Africa remains a small player, although its share has grown over the past 18 years.
