The full extent of the impact of the ongoing US-China trade war on Chinese exports is now becoming apparent. American-imposed tariffs are actually becoming a heavy burden on the Chinese.
According to customs data released Oct. 14, China's export growth fell 3.2 percent year-on-year in September, also falling 1 percent compared to a year earlier in August.
The fall in China's export growth last month was largely attributable to the drastic drop in U.S. exports, which plummeted year-over-year by 21.9 percent, and also dropped from the 16.0 percent decrease reported in August.
It culminated in average growth of 15.1 percent of Chinese shipments to the U.S. in Q3, up from 8.2 billion in Q2.
"Since accounting for Lunar New Year fluctuations, September export growth [to the U.S.] has been the lowest one-month reading since January 1996, when China customs first published the data series," Japanese financial services firm Nomura reported.
The big downturn in US-bound export growth, according to analysts, is the result of current lower US tariffs on the $380 billion list, as Chinese exporters hurried to frontload their exports ahead of a scheduled $200 billion tariff increases.
Illustrating that there were no winners in this trade war, although President Trump called for China to repatriate manufacturing, many producers instead opt for low-cost options to maintain profit levels elsewhere in Asia.
China's U.S. imports are sluggish as well. Last month's imports were down 15.7 percent year-over-year after also dropping 22.3 percent in August, down from minus 27.9 percent in Q2 on the quarterly average growth to minus 19.1 percent year-over-year in Q3.
"China's trade surplus with the U.S. has decreased from $27.0 billion in August to $25.9 billion in September," Nomura said. According to China's General Customs Administration, the country posted a trade surplus of US$ 39.65 billion, above the US$ 34.83 billion records in August.
A 15 percent tariff on about US$112 billion of Chinese goods imposed by Washington on September 15 will have influenced the new data. In August, China's exports to the US fell by 17.8 percent to US$36.5 billion.
Based on figures by the South China Morning Post, the country's total exports have retreated by nearly 0.8 percent relative to a year ago in the first nine months of the year. During the same quarter, imports were down 6.5 percent, reflecting the mainland's persistent problem in this segment.
The dismal trade numbers come days after Chinese commerce ministers and their US counterparts agreed to hammer out an interim contract that would suspend a proposed tax increase seen to be implemented next week on Chinese goods worth US$ 250 billion.
