Some parts of the United States will be reopening soon, as the lockdown measures will be gradually lifted. However, the White House-favored key model of coronavirus pandemic predicted the COVID-19-related deaths might double in number by August as the country is easing the quarantine too soon.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington's School of Medicine predicts about 134,000 people will die due to virus-related issues. The number almost doubles the previous prediction of 72,000 deaths, according to Politico. If there will be a miscalculation or change of circumstances, it can go up to 243,000 fatalities.
Dr. Christopher Murray, the director of IHME, told the reporters that the main reason for the alarming increase is the "premature relaxation of social distancing." He also revealed, for the first time, that their data comes from four different cell phone drivers that showed a significant rise in numbers of people going out of their homes.
Hence, the growth of public outing can only mean that there will also be an increase in the transmission of the virus. IHME's latest prediction is the fourth of its forecasts since it debuted in March. White House heavily relied on this model as it presents more optimistic calculation when it comes to health system capacity, cases, and deaths compared to other expert predictions.
The model developed by Johns Hopkins for CDC predicted there would be as many as 3,000 COVID-19-related deaths per day by June. However, Murray believed its prediction was likely inaccurate.
He stressed that their prediction was nowhere near to their forecast. IHME only predicted there might be 890 deaths per day by June. "This relates very much to whether the models think there is going to be a large, New York-style epidemic in some states," he said.
Murray explained that they're basing their model on the rising temperature, increasing testing, and contact tracing. These things will help to break the transmission that there will be no 3,000 deaths a day by the beginning of June.
CNN added that public places were already filled with people over the weekend after some estates started to ease their lockdown measures. For the past two weeks, governors across the U.S. made a plan for the gradual reopening due to the mounting pressure the residents and businesses were making, fearing the devastating economic impact that lockdown would bring.
However, the lifting of quarantine and the removal of social distancing may come with a hefty price "It's the balance of something that's a very difficult choice," Dr. Anthony Fauci, the country's leading infectious disease expert, said. He also questioned how many deaths and suffering people could accept to get the so-called normality they wanted this soon.
