Thailand's trade surplus in March was $710 million - down from $1.73 billion in the same month a year earlier and better than a market forecast for a surplus of $610 million, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce Friday.
Thailand is putting a brave face on the data. Trade minister Jurin Laksanawisit said: "We want to assure people our exports are rising. While the tourism sector remains seriously hit, exports continue to move forward," he said.
The commerce ministry agrees: There is "recovering global demand as more countries reopen their economies in the aftermath of COVID-19 disruptions."
"The government expects outbound shipments to increase by 4% in 2021 - supported by a recovery in foreign demand. In 2020, exports fell 6.01%."
For the first three months of the year the trade surplus fell to $520 million from $4.62 billion in the same period last year.
Exports from Thailand unexpectedly expanded 8.47% year on year in March - beating a market consensus for a 0.48% fall and after a 2.59% drop in the previous month. The export data was the best in more than two years, the ministry said. Export value was $24.22 billion.
Imports to Thailand increased by 14.1% on year in March - exceeding market expectations for a 5.95% gain and after a 21.9% jump in the month before. "A recovery in domestic demand accelerated in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.
Many of the materials Thailand imports are assembled into completed goods and then reshipped.
In May and June - when the world was hit by lockdowns - exports ended up in negative territory: contracting by 22% and 23%, respectively. However, the country's exports experienced less severe contractions over following months until December, when they grew by 4.7%, the ministry said.
Exports edged up 0.35% in January this year before contracting 2.59% in February owing mainly to a drop in industrial products and gold shipments.
"Asia's emergence from the pandemic has been threatened recently by a resurgence in infections across parts of the region. Thailand had to introduce new restrictions to contain outbreaks of the virus and we have cut our growth forecasts," Capital Economics said in a research paper.
"A jump in virus cases in Thailand, which is threatening to delay the reopening of the tourism sector, will hold back the economic recovery.
"The poor prospects for the tourism sector (with visitor arrivals classified as exports) and a recent jump in infections will hold back the recovery this year. The economy contracted by 6.1% in 2020, which was the worst performance since the Asian financial crisis."
Virus restrictions "are likely to weigh on spending and damage sentiment but could also jeopardize plans to reopen the tourism sector. The government had been hoping to welcome fully vaccinated foreign tourists to the island of Phuket (which before the crisis attracted 14% of international visitors) without a mandatory quarantine period, starting in July.
We think gross domestic product will grow by 3% this year - which would leave the economy around 7.0% below its pre-crisis trend at year-end," Capital Economics said.
