Finland's right-wing National Coalition Party (NCP) is on course to win Sunday's parliamentary election, according to public broadcaster Yle's projections, which are based on 71% of the votes counted. The tight three-way race sees the NCP likely securing 48 of the 200 parliamentary seats, with the nationalist Finns Party obtaining 46 seats and Prime Minister Sanna Marin's Social Democrats trailing at 43 seats.
NCP leader Petteri Orpo, responding to the projections, told Yle, "My thought is that those are really heavy numbers on the screen... a strong mandate for our politics." The largest group in parliament has the first opportunity to form a coalition to achieve a majority, signaling a potential end to Marin's tenure as prime minister.
Marin, who became the world's youngest prime minister in 2019 at age 37, is viewed globally as a symbol of progressive millennial leadership. However, domestically, she has faced scrutiny for her partying habits and her government's public spending.
The NCP has maintained a lead in polls for nearly two years, although the gap has narrowed in recent months. The party has pledged to reduce spending and halt the growth of public debt, which has exceeded 70% of GDP since Marin assumed office in 2019. Orpo has criticized Marin for weakening Finland's economic resilience amid the energy crisis caused by Russia's war in Ukraine, which has heavily impacted the country and increased living costs.
Orpo expressed his willingness to negotiate with all parties to establish a parliamentary majority. Conversely, Marin stated that her Social Democrats may cooperate with the NCP but will not collaborate with the Finns Party, which she labeled as "openly racist" during a January debate - an accusation the nationalist group refutes. The Finns Party, led by Riikka Purra, aims to diminish what it considers "harmful" immigration from non-EU developing countries and advocates for austerity policies to control deficit spending, a position it shares with the NCP.
