For the first time, China is maintaining at least one nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarine on continuous patrol at sea, as reported by a Pentagon assessment. This move adds to the challenges faced by the United States and its allies in countering Beijing's expanding military power. The analysis highlights that China's six Jin-class ballistic missile submarines are operating "near-continuous" patrols from Hainan Island into the South China Sea. Armed with a new, longer-range ballistic missile, these submarines are now capable of striking the continental US.
The increased patrols indicate advancements in various areas, including logistics, command and control, and weaponry. China has begun operating its ballistic missile submarines similarly to how the US, Russia, Britain, and France have done for decades, according to military attaches, former submariners, and security analysts. These "deterrence patrols" allow them to threaten a nuclear counterattack even if land-based missiles and systems are destroyed, thus deterring adversaries from initiating an attack.
General Anthony Cotton, commander of the US Strategic Command, informed a congressional hearing in March that Chinese submarines are now being equipped with the third-generation JL-3 missile. With an estimated range of over 10,000 kilometers (6,214 miles) and the ability to carry multiple warheads, the JL-3 enables China to target the continental US from Chinese coastal waters for the first time, as noted in the Pentagon report.
The constant Chinese ballistic missile patrols at sea place additional strain on the resources of the US and its allies as they step up Cold War-style deployments. Christopher Twomey, a security scholar at the US Naval Postgraduate School in California, said, "We're going to want to have our SSNs trying to tail them... so the extra demands on our assets are clear."
The US Navy deploys approximately two dozen nuclear-powered attack subs across the Pacific, including in Guam and Hawaii, according to the Pacific Fleet. As part of the AUKUS deal, US and British nuclear-powered subs will be stationed in Western Australia from 2027.
Timothy Wright, a defense analyst at London's International Institute for Strategic Studies, stated that US forces could likely manage the current situation, but will need to allocate more assets in the next 10 to 15 years once the stealthier Type-096 patrols begin. China's rapid expansion of its nuclear forces means that US strategists must contend with two "nuclear peer adversaries" for the first time, including Russia.
