The number of criminal lawsuits involving former U.S. President Donald Trump continues to pile up. After facing charges related to hush-money payments in New York and over confidential files from Mar-a-Lago by the U.S. Department of Justice, Trump is once again under indictment, this time for attempting to overturn the 2020 election results. On August 3, Trump appeared at the federal court in Washington, D.C., refusing to plead guilty to four counts.
As with his previous appearances, Trump quickly organized a fundraiser right after leaving the courtroom. On a Friday evening, he attended a Republican fundraiser in Alabama, confidently stating that if he were sued once more, he would secure victory in the 2024 presidential election.
According to recent polls, these legal troubles have not dented Trump's popularity among Republican voters. In fact, they have helped extend his lead. However, three lawsuits have increased Trump's risk of being sentenced to prison. Meanwhile, a district attorney in Georgia is preparing to bring a fourth case against Trump.
Reports from the Associated Press and Politico on August 5 revealed that Trump delivered a nearly 40-minute speech at the fundraiser. He lambasted current President Biden for using the Justice Department for political persecution to hinder his campaign.
Trump mocked the impact of his own legal troubles, claiming that each time prosecutors brought charges, his support in the polls surged. He declared that if prosecutors brought another suit against him, the election would be over, with no one else standing a chance.
A poll for the 2024 election, released this week by the New York Times and Siena College, shows Trump's support among Republican voters at an impressive 54%, far outpacing any other party candidates. Florida Governor DeSantis, Trump's biggest competitor, had only 17%, and all other Republicans, including former Vice President Pence, did not exceed 3%.
Among Republican voters, Trump and DeSantis have favorability ratings of 76% and 66% respectively. However, 43% of voters feel very positive about Trump, while DeSantis only has 25%.
Trump's first two criminal indictments have sparked a wave of donations from supporters. Data released by the Trump campaign committee last month revealed that in the second quarter of this year, Trump's fundraising team raised over $35 million, higher than the $18.8 million in the first quarter. The increase in donations in the second quarter was directly due to Trump facing criminal charges.
Trump's indictment in April for the hush-money case and his appearance in court in Manhattan created a fundraising peak. One week after being indicted, his fundraising team had received $13.5 million in donations. In the week after being charged in the Mar-a-Lago confidential files case, the team received $5.8 million in donations.
The dinner Trump attended on Friday was also a fundraiser. The tickets for the dinner were $250 each, with 2,700 people in attendance. In contrast, DeSantis held a fundraiser in Alabama in March of this year but sold less than 1,000 tickets.
At the dinner, Trump received the support of all the Republican representatives in Alabama, as well as five state officials, including the governor. Alabama has six representatives in the House of Representatives.
Under the U.S. Constitution, there are only three requirements to serve as president: being a natural-born U.S. citizen, being at least 35 years old, and having lived in the U.S. for at least 14 years. Even if Trump is found guilty in all three criminal suits, it would not affect his eligibility to run in the 2024 election.
Currently, the three lawsuits do not appear to have affected Trump's popularity among Republican voters. However, as the number of charges increases, so does the possibility of Trump being sentenced to prison.
In the indictment this week, Special Counsel Jack Smith of the Department of Justice brought four counts against Trump: conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to obstruct official proceedings, obstruction and attempted obstruction of official proceedings, and conspiracy to violate civil rights.
The indictment asserts that Trump, despite losing the 2020 presidential election, was "determined to stay in power." The former president is accused of spreading lies about election fraud in the two months following the election, trying to twist the truth even when he knew he was lying. The prosecution alleges that Trump's actions have intensified public distrust and anger, undermining voter confidence in U.S. elections.
With the addition of the latest four counts, Trump now faces a total of 78 charges in three criminal cases, with 34 in the hush-money case and 40 in the Mar-a-Lago confidential files case. Before heading to court in Washington, Trump claimed in a fundraising letter to supporters that he could face 561 years in prison due to left-wing political persecution.
However, U.S. media calculations indicate that if Trump is found guilty on all counts, and each count receives the maximum sentence, he could face 641 years in prison.
In reality, the likelihood of Trump being convicted on all counts is slim. If multiple charges in a single case result in imprisonment, the sentencing may be calculated cumulatively, not simply added together. Furthermore, as this would be Trump's first offense, the sentence would not be based on the maximum punishment.
For Trump, the critical time point of these lawsuits is the 2024 election. If he wins the election while the lawsuits are still being heard, President Trump could grant himself a pardon or have the new Attorney General withdraw the charges.
Even if Trump loses the election, the question of whether to imprison a former president, protected by Secret Service and privy to numerous state secrets, would present a conundrum for the U.S.
Kel McClanahan, a professor of law at the University of Washington and a national security lawyer, theorized that if imprisoned, Trump could become a "gold mine of intelligence" that many countries would want to exploit. He might even reveal the location of U.S. missile bases if coerced. McClanahan speculated that even if Trump were found guilty, he likely would not be incarcerated but rather placed under house arrest with an ankle monitor.
Each of the three criminal cases that Trump currently faces would take over a year to try. Special Counsel Smith is applying to the judge for a speedy trial to shorten the time. The Mar-a-Lago confidential files case, along with the 2020 election case, are being investigated and prosecuted by Smith.
The judge in charge of the classified documents case is Aileen Cannon, a Federal District Judge for the Southern District of Florida, appointed by Trump himself in 2020. Cannon has the authority to decide whether to expedite the classified documents case, which, among the three criminal prosecutions, carries the most serious charges against Trump.
The judge presiding over the 2020 election case is Tanya Chutkan, an appointee of former Democratic President Obama. Trump's legal team has already submitted a motion to Chutkan opposing the expedited trial, requesting that the judge allow more time for a fair defense.
In the coming weeks, the local prosecutor in Fulton County, Georgia, is also preparing to prosecute Trump for trying to overturn the results of the 2020 election. This will become the fourth criminal case against Trump.
