Is the era of fossil fuels coming to an end? Mixed signals are emerging from various organizations.
Inter-governmental agencies suggest the beginning of the end for the fossil fuel era is near, with demand peaking this decade, faster than anticipated. However, a report from a non-governmental organization reveals that, regardless of their ambitious climate goals, 20 developed nations led by the G20 have charted fossil fuel expansion plans for the next 30 years. This could result in an increase of about 173 billion tons of carbon emissions, casting them in the role of "planet destroyers."
These reports come as the 78th United Nations General Assembly is set to convene on September 19. Secretary-General António Guterres is intensifying calls for nations to move away from fossil fuels, warning that expansion is both "morally and economically insane." To push world leaders to make new commitments to address the climate crisis, Guterres has stressed that only leaders with clear plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will be allowed to attend the summit.
There's significant attention on UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's late August decision to skip the General Assembly, marking the first such absence for the country in a decade. Recent media revelations suggest Sunak was warned of the assembly's strict policy before announcing his decision. The UK's fossil fuel policy is under scrutiny, especially after Sunak's earlier pledge to "maximize" North Sea oil and gas operations and the issuance of several potential new licenses.
Faster-than-Expected Demand Peak
Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), wrote on Tuesday that, according to the agency's latest predictions, the seemingly ever-growing era will end this decade, marking "the beginning of the end for the fossil fuel era." Even without any new climate policies and based solely on existing policies of today's governments, global demand for oil, natural gas, and coal will peak in the coming years. This is the first time in a decade that signs of a demand peak for each fuel have emerged, "sooner than many expected."
The IEA, an intergovernmental energy organization established after the 1973 oil crisis, has incorporated clean energy and global energy transition into its energy charter.
The aforementioned forecast is based on the IEA's "World Energy Outlook" report set to be released in October. Birol stated that the report will show the world is "at a historic crossroads." Major drivers of this change include the astonishing growth of clean energy technologies like solar panels and electric vehicles, China's economic structural shift, and the impacts of the global energy crisis.
However, several nuances persist. For instance, demand for different fuels varies greatly across regions. Declines in developed economies will be partially offset by continued growth in some emerging and developing economies, especially in the natural gas sector. But the global trend is clear: low-emission power and fuels, along with improved energy efficiency, are increasingly meeting the world's growing energy needs.
Additionally, the decline in demand won't be linear. While fossil fuels will structurally peak this decade, there may still be spikes, troughs, and plateaus during the decline. For example, heatwaves and droughts might boost electricity demand while suppressing hydropower, leading to a temporary surge in coal demand.
Furthermore, even as demand for fossil fuels decreases, energy security challenges will persist as suppliers adapt to the changes.
Birol noted that the impending peak in demand for the three fossil fuels is "heartening." However, he emphasized that this alone is far from sufficient to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. To limit global warming to 1.5°C, governments need to take more robust and swifter policy actions.
Yet, another report released the same day poured cold water on this optimism.
Developed Nations Continue Expansion
On Tuesday, a report from the U.S. non-governmental organization "Oil Change International" (OCI) accused 20 countries, led by the U.S., of being "planet destroyers." Over the next 30 years, 90% of global carbon pollution will come from these 20 countries' new fossil fuel plans. The report warns that if this expansion is allowed, it will lead to climate chaos and an uninhabitable future.
The report, titled "Planet Destroyers: How 20 Countries' Oil and Gas Extraction Plans Risk Climate Chaos," found that from 2023 to 2050, these 20 countries have charted new fossil fuel expansion plans that will add about 173 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions. This is equivalent to the lifetime emissions of 1,100 coal-fired power plants or over 30 years of U.S. emissions.
If this expansion is permitted, the goal of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C will be unattainable. The carbon pollution produced will exceed the 1.5°C target budget by 190%, further risking a temperature rise beyond 2°C. Even without approving new plans, extracting fossil fuels from existing global sites would lead to 140% more carbon pollution than the 1.5°C budget. Therefore, countries need to ramp up emission reductions, shutting down oil fields.
If countries abandon new oil and gas field developments now, it would mean global oil and gas production would slow by about 2% annually from now until 2030 and 5% annually from 2030 to 2050.
The report highlighted the U.S. as the top "destroyer," accounting for over a third of global oil and gas new expansion plans by 2050, followed by Canada and Russia. The top five on the list, which includes the U.S., Canada, Australia, Norway, and the UK, account for the majority (51%) of the new expansion plans. They are all developed nations with the economic capability to phase out production rapidly.
"These are countries with significant historical responsibility for the climate crisis, are now high-income and economically diversified, yet are undertaking more new drilling while also claiming to be climate leaders. This is unforgivable," the report stated. These nations must not only immediately halt expansion but also phase out production at the fastest pace possible, paying their fair share for a just global energy transition.
In response to the report, a spokesperson for the UK's Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said the report overlooks their significant progress in reducing reliance on fossil fuels. They cited data showing that from 1990 to 2021, UK emissions decreased by 48% while the economy grew by 65%, decarbonizing faster than any other G7 nation. Even by 2050, when the UK achieves net-zero emissions, it's estimated that the country's natural gas usage might still be a quarter of current levels.
