Tensions are rising as North Korea appears to have suspended operations at its primary nuclear facility. Intelligence reports from the US and South Korea suggest that the Yongbyon nuclear complex, a chief plutonium source, halted its 5-megawatt reactor last month. "This could signal reprocessing activities to procure weapons-grade plutonium," a government insider informed the Donga Ilbo newspaper. Plutonium reprocessing is a pivotal step preceding its extraction from spent fuel rods, often for weaponization.
Amid these nuclear endeavors, there's growing apprehension that North Korea could test another nuclear weapon soon. The nation remains tight-lipped about its nuclear arsenal, but estimates indicate that their plutonium could be sufficient to produce over 20 nuclear weapons.
Recent constitutional changes in North Korea further emphasize the country's commitment to nuclear power. Last week, the North Korean parliament made amendments clarifying its stance on nuclear force, with leader Kim Jong Un pushing for an increase in nuclear armament production and capability diversification.
In a parallel development, the international community is keenly watching North Korea's plans to launch a military reconnaissance satellite. The satellite has had two failed launches, but its technological similarities to Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) cause alarm, especially for the US. Speculation is rife that North Korea aims to time the launch around the Workers' Party of Korea's founding day on October 10, a significant national holiday.
Kwon Yong-su, a former National Defense University professor, expressed confidence in North Korea's capability, suggesting they are ready for a successful launch. "There's a high possibility they received advice from Russia post the North Korea-Russia summit," Kwon added.
However, political and environmental elements could influence the launch timeline. With the Hangzhou Asian Games in China drawing to a close on the 8th of October, North Korea might defer the launch to avoid overshadowing their ally's event. Yet, meteorological unpredictability could throw a spanner in the works.
Hong Min, from the Korea Institute for National Unification, proposes a potential delay until December to refine the satellite's quality. Despite no special movements detected, officials remain on high alert. "We're monitoring closely, given the unpredictability of a launch," shared an official from the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Adding another layer of concern, North Korea might test other military assets, like ICBMs or Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs), akin to their actions last year. Amid these uncertainties, Senior researcher Hong warns of potential North Korean retaliations against upcoming US-ROK air exercises, saying, "Repercussions could take the form of SLBMs, short-range missiles, or even artillery assaults."
