Since last weekend's surprise attack on Israel by the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which ignited the most intense Israel-Palestine conflict in decades, the dynamics of offense and defense have shifted. On Monday, Israel initiated retaliatory measures, imposing a complete blockade on the Gaza Strip, cutting off water, electricity, and fuel supplies, and conducting airstrikes for three days. By early Wednesday local time, the conflict had resulted in over 2,100 casualties on both sides.
As the cycle of violence escalates, a brewing humanitarian crisis looms over the 2 million Palestinians in Gaza, trapped under Israel's comprehensive blockade. How can the international community intervene to prevent further large-scale casualties?
According to China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on Tuesday, Zhai Jun, China's special envoy on Middle East affairs, spoke with Osama, the Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs for Palestinian Affairs in Egypt. Zhai reiterated China's long-standing position advocating a two-state solution and expressed deep concern over civilian casualties in the conflict.
Furthermore, Zhai conveyed China's willingness to coordinate with Egypt to urge both parties to cease hostilities and to rally international support to provide humanitarian aid to the Palestinian people, especially in Gaza, to prevent the humanitarian situation from deteriorating further.
Egypt is considered one of the most crucial mediators in this conflict. Given its geographical location and historical ties, Egypt holds unique sway over both Israel and Palestine. In previous Israel-Palestine conflicts, Egypt has successfully mediated multiple times.
In fact, mere hours after the escalation last Saturday, Egypt's foreign minister discussed the situation with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. He later reached out to senior officials from France, Germany, Spain, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Russia.
However, mediating this time around poses unprecedented challenges. Given Israel's unexpected and successful attack by Hamas, many observers believe it might not be the optimal time for diplomatic intervention.
Political Mediation Might Be Premature
Mahjoob Zweiri, director of the Gulf Studies Center at Qatar University, believes that discussing mediation is "premature" as Israel's response is currently driven by anger and a desire for retaliation. Denis Bauchard, a Middle East consultant at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), noted that the conflict exposed failures in Israel's security and intelligence sectors. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to project a strongman image and aim to win the war before diplomatic mediation succeeds.
Moreover, the West's collective support for Israel only adds fuel to the fire. On the day the conflict escalated, the U.S., Israel's closest ally, pledged to ensure that Israel has "everything it needs for self-defense." By Tuesday evening, the USS Ford carrier group had arrived near Israel, with the USS Eisenhower expected in the Middle East in about two weeks.
Secretary Blinken is also set to visit Israel and Jordan on Wednesday to show support for Israel. Al Jazeera reported that in Washington, diplomatic efforts and discussions about a "two-state solution" are on hold.
Most Western countries have refrained from urging Israel to scale back its military response. Leaders from countries like France and Germany have uniformly supported Israel and condemned Hamas's attacks.
Initially, the EU's first response to the outbreak of the conflict was to announce an immediate "suspension" of development aid to Palestine. However, this move sparked controversy within the EU. Spain's Foreign Minister Arancha González Laya deemed the decision "unacceptable," emphasizing that Hamas, listed as a terrorist organization by the EU, should not be conflated with the Palestinian people, the Palestinian Authority, or local UN organizations. Hours later, the EU shifted its stance from "suspension" to "review."
On Tuesday, after an emergency meeting of EU foreign ministers, the tone towards Israel was slightly more assertive. The EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, stated that while Israel has the right to self-defense against Hamas's attacks, its response must comply with international humanitarian law. He condemned Israel's "complete blockade" of Gaza, cutting off water, electricity, and food, as a violation of international law.
Both sides have suffered significant casualties, and Hamas has taken an undisclosed number of hostages, further complicating mediation efforts. Hasni Abidi, director of the Arab World and Mediterranean Research Center in Geneva, believes that this unprecedented conflict will undoubtedly require different mediation and intervention methods than before.
Given Israel's current state of anger and the fact that Hamas has taken Israeli civilian hostages, humanitarian mediation, rather than political mediation, might be the current direction.
Humanitarian Mediation in Action
On Tuesday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed "deep sorrow" over Israel's comprehensive encirclement of the Gaza Strip. The organization stated that international law prohibits siege operations and called for the establishment of humanitarian corridors. The UN's Middle East Peace Envoy took to social media to share that they are in dialogue and cooperation with relevant parties to improve the living conditions of the people in Gaza, especially the most vulnerable groups.
Egypt and Qatar are working together to negotiate a hostage exchange. Egypt has publicly warned Israel against taking "disproportionate" actions against the Palestinian people. One of their most pressing mediation issues is to persuade Hamas to release the hostages.
Qatar's Foreign Ministry revealed efforts to reach a prisoner exchange agreement with Hamas. The plan involves exchanging women and children hostages taken by Hamas for about 30 Palestinian women and children held in Israeli prisons. Qatar, a long-time aid provider to Gaza, is believed to have significant influence over Hamas.
Another regional player, Jordan, is also taking action. The country's king has directed officials to provide emergency humanitarian and medical aid to the Palestinians in Gaza through the Rafah crossing point, in full coordination with Egypt.
Turkey is also seen as a potential mediator, being one of the few countries with access to both Israel and Palestine. On Monday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called for a ceasefire and expressed willingness to mediate the conflict and facilitate a prisoner exchange agreement.
Erdoğan's government has long supported the Palestinian people and the "two-state solution." However, Turkey's stance has been subtly shifting recently. Reports suggest that several Hamas officials have been expelled from Turkey in recent months. At the same time, there are signs of a thaw in Turkey-Israel relations. During the recent UN General Assembly, Erdoğan met with Netanyahu, a move considered unprecedented.
The spotlight is also on two other significant countries behind this conflict: Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Saudi Arabia's moves towards normalizing relations with Israel are believed to be one of the triggers for Hamas's attack. The UAE, under U.S. encouragement, is a major Arab country that has already normalized relations with Israel. Both have been relatively low-key and restrained in their statements.
Saudi Arabia has been relatively subdued, issuing a statement only on the day the conflict erupted. The kingdom called for both sides to de-escalate and protect civilians. It warned that as long as there is "continuous occupation, depriving the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights, and repeated planned provocations against their holy sites," the situation in the region will remain volatile.
The UAE, in a statement released last Sunday evening, called for an end to violence and protection of civilians. It expressed "frustration" over Hamas's attack, viewing it as a "very serious escalation," but did not condemn Hamas as the West had hoped.
