The recent flare-up between Israel and Hamas has not only brought devastation to the immediate region but has also cast a shadow on the U.S.'s Middle East policy, particularly the normalization of ties between Israel and Arab nations.
The conflict, which has been ongoing for a week, began when Hamas launched a multi-pronged attack on Israel. This unexpected move was met with a robust Israeli counter-strike, with the Israeli forces targeting Gaza with airstrikes and shelling. As of Friday, Israel reported attacking 750 "military targets" in the densely populated Gaza Strip. The violence has thrust the Israel-Palestine issue back into the limelight, with Arab nations taking varied stances.
Historically, the Palestine issue has been central to regional geopolitics. However, in recent times, some Arab leaders had shown a willingness to sidestep the matter to normalize ties with Israel. This shift was evident in the U.S.-led "Abraham Accords" signed in September 2020, which signaled a broader normalization between Israel and Arab states. But the current conflict has brought the issue back to the forefront.
The Biden administration had been making significant efforts to foster ties between Israel and Arab nations, especially Saudi Arabia. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had even hinted at growing closeness between the two nations. However, the recent conflict has potentially set back these normalization efforts. Saudi Arabia, post the Hamas attack, has called for a de-escalation and shown support for a two-state solution favoring Palestine.
The Hamas attack, while widely unsupported, has given the Palestine cause a renewed focus. Over the past years, the Palestinian cause had taken a backseat due to geopolitical shifts, regional economic needs, and Washington's push for better ties in the Middle East. But the current violence has reignited the issue.
Countries that are signatories of the Abraham Accords, like Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, have adopted a more "cautious tone" post the Hamas attack. In contrast, nations like Qatar, Oman, and Kuwait have squarely blamed Israel's policies for the violence. Egypt and Jordan seem to have taken a more balanced approach.
The conflict's implications extend beyond the immediate region. The U.S.'s unwavering support for Israel might deter other global players from getting involved. However, if the conflict were to expand and involve countries like Iran and Syria, major players like Russia might not remain passive.
The Israel-Hamas war has the potential to deepen the strategic divide in the Middle East. On one side, there's Israel and the Arab countries, and on the other, nations like Iran, Syria, and Lebanon. If the conflict escalates, it could further deteriorate the regional strategic situation, impacting initiatives like the India Middle East Economic Corridor.
Rallies in support of Palestine have erupted across the Middle East, including in countries like Bahrain, Morocco, Turkey, Yemen, Tunisia, and Kuwait. These demonstrations underscore the fact that while governments might be looking to normalize ties with Israel, the sentiment on the streets remains pro-Palestine.
In conclusion, the Israel-Hamas conflict has not only brought immediate devastation but has also cast uncertainty on the future of Arab-Israeli normalization, a cornerstone of U.S. Middle East policy. The coming weeks and months will be crucial in determining the trajectory of these relationships and the broader geopolitics of the region.
