Amidst heightened geopolitical tensions, the Pentagon released an annual assessment indicating a significant growth in China's nuclear arsenal, prompting concerns in Washington about Beijing's military ambitions.
The latest U.S. defense analysis projects that China could possess over 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, marking a notable escalation from prior estimates. As of May, China reportedly maintained a stockpile of more than 500 operational warheads, a figure that stands in sharp contrast to the U.S. Department of Defense's 2021 estimate of around 400.
"China firmly adheres to a nuclear strategy of self-defence and defence," responded Mao Ning, the spokesperson for China's foreign ministry. She asserted that China has consistently kept its nuclear forces "at the lowest level required for national security," dismissing any intentions of joining a nuclear arms race. She further stated that as long as nations refrain from threatening China with nuclear weapons, they won't face such threats from Beijing.
The Pentagon's assessment, however, signals growing alarm about Beijing's expansive military objectives. "We're not trying to suggest a very large departure from where they [China] looked to be headed... but we are suggesting that they're on track to exceed those previous projections," a senior Pentagon official commented, emphasizing the U.S.'s heightened concerns.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, an independent entity, points out that while China's nuclear armament growth is swift, its stockpile is comparatively modest against the formidable arsenals of Russia and the U.S., which respectively hold 5,889 and 5,244 warheads.
China's President Xi Jinping, since assuming power in 2012, has been vocal about his vision for the nation's military, aspiring for a "world-class military" by the middle of this century. This intent aligns with the Pentagon's finding, suggesting that Beijing's ambition to boost its nuclear armament would "dwarf previous attempts in both scale and complexity."
U.S. officials identified recent developments, including the completion of three new clusters of missile sites in 2022, encompassing at least 300 new Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) silos. These ICBMs, characterized by their impressive range, are a testament to China's intent to project power, with the capability to strike distant targets including parts of the U.S.
Experts, while acknowledging Beijing's accelerated trajectory towards its warhead target, suggest that its pace isn't remarkably out of the ordinary. "The reported rate of increase did not look 'hugely exceptional'," remarked Henry Boyd from the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
However, recent advancements, like the development of hypersonic missiles, could be compelling China to recalibrate its defense strategy, speculated Lyle Morris from the Asia Society Policy Institute.
The report further highlights Beijing's intensified activities concerning Taiwan. There's increased diplomatic, political, and military pressure, including ballistic missile overflights and military exercises, seemingly designed to unsettle the island. The Pentagon believes that Mr. Xi has instructed defense leaders to prepare for a potential forced reunification with Taiwan by 2027.
The report's release coincides with strained China-U.S. relations. The Pentagon recently disclosed evidence of the Chinese air force conducting numerous "coercive and risky" maneuvers against U.S. aircraft in international airspace, further escalating tensions.
The overarching narrative underscores the urgency for diplomatic channels to be fortified and for both nations to ensure a balanced approach to international security.
