While Israel postponed its ground assault on the Gaza Strip, it intensified its aerial bombardment, resulting in the deadliest airstrikes since the beginning of the current Israel-Palestine conflict.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, addressing the UN Security Council, once again called for a ceasefire, referencing the historical occupation of Palestine. His comments sparked strong protests from Israel. Israel's UN representative demanded an immediate apology from Guterres, suggesting he should resign if he failed to do so.
Both the U.S. and Russia presented their respective draft resolutions to the Security Council. The U.S. proposed a temporary ceasefire to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza, while Russia urged both parties to cease hostilities to end the ongoing conflict.
Due to the prolonged conflict in Gaza, Standard & Poor's, one of the three major global rating agencies, downgraded Israel's sovereign credit rating outlook from "stable" to "negative." However, the agency believes the conflict will remain confined to the Gaza Strip and won't spread to other regions.
24 Hours of Devastation
Statistics from the Gaza Health Ministry indicate that from the evening of October 23 to 24, Israeli airstrikes resulted in the deaths of at least 704 individuals, 305 of whom were children. This 24-hour period marked the deadliest since the conflict's onset.
The Israeli military announced it had carried out over 400 airstrikes that day, targeting Hamas command centers and tunnel shafts in the Gaza Strip.
By Tuesday, the death toll in the Gaza Strip had risen to 5,791, including 2,360 children, with over 16,000 injured. Inside Israel, 1,400 have died, the majority from a Hamas raid on October 7, with over 5,400 injured.
Due to disagreements between Israel, Egypt, the U.S., and the UN over cargo inspection procedures, over 20 trucks carrying aid couldn't enter Gaza through the Egyptian Rafah crossing. By Tuesday evening, only eight trucks had successfully passed through.
Israel continues to deny fuel shipments to Gaza, fearing it would end up in Hamas's hands. The UN reports that due to the fuel shortage, over a third of Gaza's hospitals and two-thirds of its health centers have ceased operations.
The UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees warned on social media that if the fuel issue isn't resolved, it might have to halt its aid operations in Gaza.
Addressing the fuel shortage in Gaza, Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson Daniel Hagari said it wasn't Israel's responsibility. He suggested that Hamas could return the fuel it allegedly stole from the UN Relief and Works Agency to supply Gaza's hospitals.
While continuing its heavy bombardment of Gaza, Israel also launched overnight airstrikes on two military targets in Syria on Tuesday, resulting in the deaths of eight Syrian soldiers. Israel accused pro-Iranian militias in Syria of firing rockets at it. Since the Syrian civil war began, Israel has consistently launched airstrikes against pro-Iranian targets inside Syria.
Clashes between Israel and Hezbollah continue in the disputed territories along the Israel-Lebanon border. In the West Bank, controlled by the Palestinian National Authority, Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian militants in the Jenin refugee camp, resulting in at least three deaths.
Security Council Debates Rage On
On Tuesday, the UN Security Council held an extensive debate on the Israel-Palestine issue, lasting over three hours. Guterres once again called for an immediate ceasefire, emphasizing the suffering of the people in the Gaza region.
Without directly naming Israel, Guterres criticized the blockade and airstrikes on Gaza as a "collective punishment" against the Palestinian people, stating that such actions clearly "violate international law."
He further highlighted that the attacks by Hamas didn't come "out of the blue," emphasizing that the "Palestinian people have endured 56 years of suffocating occupation." Israel has established numerous Jewish settlements in the West Bank and has maintained a long-standing blockade on Gaza.
Guterres's remarks were met with strong opposition from Israel. Israel's UN representative, Gilad Erdan, accused Guterres of sympathizing with violence against Israelis and demanded his resignation. Israel's Foreign Minister Cohen also canceled a scheduled meeting with Guterres that day, emphasizing that Hamas "must be eradicated from the face of the earth."
U.S. Secretary of State Blinken, during the Security Council debate, urged nations to support the U.S.'s draft resolution on the Israel-Palestine issue, stating that the U.S. proposal offers a practical path forward.
The U.S. presented its draft resolution last Saturday. Initially, the draft explicitly recognized Israel's right to self-defense and called on Iran to stop supplying weapons to militant and terrorist groups in the Middle East, without mentioning a ceasefire. However, under international pressure, the U.S. amended the draft to call for measures in Gaza, including a "humanitarian temporary ceasefire" to allow aid into the region.
Russia, expressing dissatisfaction with the U.S. draft, presented its own resolution on Tuesday. Russia's proposal calls for an immediate ceasefire and an end to the current conflict, a stance supported by Arab nations.
To date, the UN Security Council has not voted on the U.S. and Russian draft resolutions.
For a resolution to pass the Security Council, it must receive support from at least nine of its members and face no vetoes from the five permanent members. The U.S., Russia, the UK, France, and China are the permanent members. Last week's resolution on the Israel-Palestine issue failed due to a U.S. veto.
Conflict's Broader Implications
Seeing no immediate end to the Gaza conflict, Standard & Poor's Global Ratings downgraded Israel's sovereign credit rating outlook from "stable" to "negative" on Tuesday, while affirming its "AA-" rating.
The downgrade reflects the deteriorating geopolitical and security risks Israel faces. If the current conflict significantly spreads to other regions, intensifying Israel's geopolitical risks, the agency might further downgrade Israel's rating.
Additionally, if the conflict's impact on Israel's economic growth, fiscal health, and balance of payments exceeds expectations, Standard & Poor's might also consider a downgrade.
Currently, the agency believes the conflict will remain localized to the Gaza Strip, lasting no more than three to six months. It also anticipates that a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon is unlikely.
However, the agency noted that the current conflict will negatively impact Israel's economic growth. This includes disruptions from Hamas rocket attacks, a reduced workforce due to the mobilization of 360,000 reservists, the halt in production at the Tamar gas field near Gaza, and setbacks in Israel's tourism industry.
Standard & Poor's forecasts that Israel's economy will contract by 5% in the fourth quarter of this year compared to the third quarter, with a recovery expected in 2024.
Before Standard & Poor's announcement, Moody's had placed Israel's long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings of "A1" on its watchlist, warning that the intensity of the current Israel-Palestine conflict might have lasting and substantial effects on Israel's rating.
Fitch Ratings also placed Israel's long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings of "A+" on its negative watchlist last week. Like Standard & Poor's, Fitch believes that, based on current projections, the conflict will not spread to other regions.
However, if parties like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Iran become directly involved, leading to a large-scale escalation, Israel could face increased military expenses, infrastructure damage, and shifts in consumer and investor sentiment, potentially resulting in a credit rating downgrade. To date, Israel has not experienced a credit rating downgrade by any major international rating agency.
