Iceland has entered a state of emergency due to a series of earthquakes in the southwest part of the country, specifically on the Reykjanes Peninsula. Following these seismic events, the country's Civil Protection and Emergency Management Authority announced the emergency status. Residents of Grindavík, a town on the peninsula, have been instructed to evacuate.
The Chinese Embassy in Iceland had already issued a notice on November 8, advising Chinese citizens in Iceland to be aware of seismic and volcanic activities.
Since late October, the Icelandic Meteorological Office has recorded over 24,000 earthquakes on the peninsula. On the night of November 10 alone, more than 800 earthquakes were detected, with the largest being a magnitude 5.2, felt distinctly in the capital Reykjavik, located about 40 kilometers from the peninsula.
Volcano on the Verge of Eruption, Popular Tourist Spots Closed
A recent update on November 12 indicated increased geological activity in the area since the emergency declaration, with over 1,000 small earthquakes, measuring below 3.0 in magnitude, detected between midnight and noon. The latest GPS data suggests a slowdown in deformation caused by magma tunnel intrusion, indicating that magma may be moving towards the surface. This increases the likelihood of an eruption at the Fagradalsfjall volcano on the Reykjanes Peninsula in the coming days.
Sara Barsotti, a volcanic hazard coordinator at the Icelandic Meteorological Office, mentioned that the magma dyke has been shallowing, and its top is now estimated to be 800 meters below the surface. This event is unprecedented, with the process's speed and magma flow rate much higher than previously observed on the peninsula.
Fagradalsfjall volcano has erupted three times before, in March 2021, August 2022, and July this year. Although these eruptions were far from densely populated areas and did not attract widespread attention, they caused crustal fractures that allowed magma to find faster paths to the surface.
The current situation is very similar to the one before the March 2021 eruption. It's noteworthy that the volcanic system on the Reykjanes Peninsula had been dormant for eight centuries before awakening in March 2021.
Vidir Reynisson, head of the Civil Protection and Emergency Management Authority, stated that the magma is at a very shallow depth, so an eruption could occur within hours or days. However, the exact location of the eruption is uncertain, as a 15-kilometer-long fissure could erupt at any point.
Nearly all of Iceland is built on volcanic rock, with more than 50 active volcanoes. Frequent volcanic eruptions have brought rich geothermal resources like hot springs, attracting tourists. The Blue Lagoon, a famous site on the Reykjanes Peninsula, has suspended operations until November 16. The lagoon, along with three tourist facilities and two restaurants in the area, has ceased operations.
The Blue Lagoon, known for its therapeutic hot springs, has seen rapid growth in visitor numbers since its commercial opening in 1992, exceeding 1.7 million annually, with daily visitors surpassing 4,000 during peak season. However, the lagoon is not a natural landscape but an artificial lake formed by runoff from the overheated wastewater of the Svartsengi geothermal power plant, built in the late 1970s. Svartsengi, the world's first geothermal power plant to use a combined heat and power system, has a capacity of 75 MW of electricity and 150 MW of thermal energy. It meets the electricity and hot water needs of the entire Reykjanes Peninsula and supplies power to Reykjavik through the Icelandic grid.
The Svartsengi geothermal power plant, located just 20 kilometers from Grindavík, continues to operate. The Civil Protection and Emergency Management Authority approved a proposal on November 8 to build a 4-kilometer-long, 6-8 meter high barrier to protect the plant from lava.
Aviation Industry Under the Shadow of Volcanic Ash, Europe on High Alert
Although the closure of the Blue Lagoon has affected Iceland's popular Golden Circle tour route from Reykjavik, Keflavik International Airport, Iceland's largest airport located just 20 kilometers from the earthquake zone, remains operational. There have been no cancellations of flights from Iceland to Europe and North America, and international ferry services in Iceland are unaffected.
The U.S. State Department has issued a volcanic warning, but travel advisories for Iceland remain at their lowest level. The UK Foreign Office advises travelers to avoid earthquake-related areas and follow local media.
More pressing than the impact on tourism is whether the volcanic eruption will disrupt global aviation by ejecting large amounts of volcanic ash into the atmosphere.
In April 2010, the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland emitted 250 million cubic meters of ash and a volcanic ash plume rising about 9 kilometers high, leading to the control of airspace over Europe and parts of North America. This was the largest aviation disruption since World War II.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimated that the global aviation industry lost over 170 million euros per day during the Icelandic volcanic eruption, totaling over 1.3 billion euros. According to the Airport Operators Association (AOA), airports lost a total of 80 million pounds over six days, with over 95,000 flights canceled across Europe, affecting 10 million passengers.
During this period, at least five Finnish Air Force F-18 fighters and one British Royal Air Force Typhoon fighter suffered damage due to volcanic ash entering their engines. The disruption in aviation also caused chaos in European sports, forcing teams in the UEFA Champions League semi-finals to travel by bus for away games, contributing to Barcelona's famous elimination by Inter Milan.
Politically, the chaos in European airspace directly accelerated the European Commission's Single European Sky initiative (SES), further promoting EU integration. Disruptions in air transport, including interruptions in national pharmaceutical supply chains and BMW's production halt due to supply chain disruptions, raised discussions in the business world about supply chain resilience to new heights.
As for whether the potential eruption of Fagradalsfjall volcano will further threaten the already fragile global supply chain through aviation disruptions, there is no consensus yet.
Paavo Nikkola from the Geological Survey of Finland believes that the potential volcanic eruption will not affect air traffic, stating that a volcanic ash event like in 2010 is unlikely. The ash then was produced by an explosive eruption under a glacier. The current eruption is likely to occur underground, resulting in a calm lava eruption.
Vidir Reynisson, head of the Civil Protection and Emergency Management Authority, noted that while not highly likely, an underwater eruption cannot be ruled out. If the eruption occurs underwater, the situation could be more severe.
An underwater volcanic eruption would cause the surrounding seawater to boil rapidly due to the high heat of the magma, leading to steam explosions. These explosions would shatter the lava, producing more steam and volcanic ash. The 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption was explosive due to meltwater from the glacier, and the massive Tonga volcanic eruption in early 2022 was also underwater, triggering tsunami warnings in several Pacific island nations and causing flight cancellations in Japan.
