The 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) is currently underway in Dubai, with the future of fossil fuels emerging as a central topic of discussion.
Former U.S. Vice President and climate advocate Al Gore emphasized the significance of phasing out fossil fuels during the conference in Dubai. He stated that reaching a consensus on this issue by the end of the meeting is the only criterion for judging the success of COP28.
On December 3, Gore also heavily criticized the United Arab Emirates, the host country of COP28, accusing it of misusing public trust by assuming the role of an overseer in international negotiations on global warming.
Sultan Al Jaber, the COP28 President and head of the UAE's national oil company, expressed his stance on the gradual elimination of fossil fuels during a live broadcast in November. He argued that there is no scientific evidence to suggest that phasing out fossil fuels would limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. He warned that insisting on phasing out fossil fuels would prevent the world from achieving sustainable development and would take humanity back to the cave age.
The concept of phasing out fossil fuels implies that countries and regions must gradually abandon the use of coal, oil, and natural gas, ensuring a 100% transition to renewable energy sources. At last year's COP27 in Egypt, over 80 countries supported the phase-out of fossil fuels. However, due to insufficient support, representatives could not reach a consensus on this matter by the end of the conference.
At this year's COP28, over 100 countries from Africa, Europe, the Pacific, and the Caribbean are supporting the phase-out of fossil fuels. Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London, stated that if COP28 fails to reach a consensus on this issue, millions of vulnerable people will face risks from climate change.
Representatives advocating for the phase-out of fossil fuels insist that it is the only way to achieve the carbon reduction targets of the Paris Agreement by 2030. In 2015, nearly 200 countries signed the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius this century, preferably below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The agreement requires countries to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 45% before 2030. However, halfway through the deadline, global carbon dioxide emissions have not decreased. An analysis by researchers at Imperial College London shows that if global carbon dioxide emissions remain at last year's level of 40 billion tons, the global carbon budget will be exhausted around 2029.
The global carbon budget refers to the total amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted while keeping global warming within a certain temperature limit. According to the 1.5-degree Celsius target of the Paris Agreement, the global carbon budget is less than 250 billion tons.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres stated that at the current rate of progress, the world will warm by 2.8 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, leading to more severe climate disasters. He called on countries to phase out fossil fuels, leave oil, coal, and natural gas where they belong, and increase investment in renewable energy.
Many environmentalists are anxious about the huge investments and disproportionate returns in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology by various countries. To improve greenhouse gas emissions and achieve the 1.5-degree Celsius temperature control target, fossil fuel companies have increased their investment in CCS technology.
A report by the International Oil Change Organization shows that governments have already spent over $20 billion on CCS technology and have approved an additional $200 billion in public funds. However, many CCS projects around the world operate far below capacity and fail to achieve emission reduction targets.
The concept of "phasing down" fossil fuels, as repeatedly mentioned by COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber, implies that countries commit to gradually reducing their use of fossil fuels without completely ending their use. Jaber believes that the key challenge of this century is to significantly reduce emissions while maintaining strong sustainable development.
The global reliance on coal for energy remains high, and Jaber argues that the transition of energy cannot be achieved overnight. An article on the climate change science and policy website CarbonBrief mentioned that phasing out fossil fuels too quickly would burden many developing countries that rely heavily on coal for electricity.
According to the latest "World Energy Balance" released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), as of 2019, coal-fired power accounted for 22% of the energy mix in high-income countries and 54% in middle- and low-income countries.
The higher the proportion of coal-fired power, the more power stations need to be replaced, adding pressure on these countries in terms of transition costs and asset allocation. As high-income countries, the United Kingdom and Canada initiated the "Powering Past Coal Alliance" (PPCA) in 2017. In 2019, coal-fired power in these two countries accounted for only 2% and 6% of their energy mix, respectively. Meanwhile, coal-fired power in India accounted for 73%, and in South Africa, it was 89%. Furthermore, compared to developed countries, developing countries have had less time to develop and should not bear more climate responsibility.
On December 2, Darren Woods, CEO of ExxonMobil, said in an interview during COP28 that there is no one-size-fits-all approach, and moving away from the existing energy supply system to a completely new one is a lengthy and costly process. He believes that the focus should be on gradual changes in the energy sector to achieve emission reduction targets.
In the coming days, representatives at COP28 are expected to debate whether to "phase out" or "phase down" fossil fuels, paving the way for the wording of the final agreement around December 12. However, for addressing the climate crisis, the most important aspect is action. If COP28 lacks specific plans and actions, regardless of the rhetoric, the emission reduction targets will not be achieved.
