The United States and Venezuela have eased tensions through a prisoner exchange agreement, which has drawn attention due to the unique status of the prisoners involved.
On December 21, Venezuelan opposition presidential candidate Maria Corina Machado announced that 24 Venezuelan citizens had been released. Two days prior, the Biden administration officially released Alex Saab, a close ally of Venezuelan President Maduro. In exchange, Venezuela agreed to release 10 Americans and at least 20 Venezuelan citizens connected to the opposition.
Saab, a Venezuelan government envoy responsible for official duties in Iran, was indicted by the U.S. Justice Department in 2019 on charges including money laundering. He was arrested in Cape Verde, Africa, in 2020 while in transit and later extradited to the United States. The United Nations human rights organization has called Saab's arrest irregular, as there was no Interpol red notice or arrest warrant at the time, urging the U.S. government to release him.
Former U.S. President Trump prioritized Saab's extradition, even spending millions of dollars on a bounty. In 2019, the Trump administration planned to support Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido's rise to power. After a controversial vote, Guaido declared himself interim president of Venezuela, leading Maduro to sever ties with the U.S., plummeting relations to an all-time low. Saab is believed to hold many of Maduro's secrets, and his arrest by the Trump administration was likely to aid the opposition against Maduro's government.
Russia openly supported Maduro, somewhat suppressing Trump's desire for strong intervention in Venezuelan affairs. Former U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper revealed in his 2022 memoir "A Sacred Oath" that the Trump administration plotted a military invasion of Venezuela and even the assassination of Maduro.
The conflict is closely related to Venezuela's oil resources. According to the "BP World Energy Statistics 2022," Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves, far surpassing Saudi Arabia. However, due to U.S. sanctions, Venezuela's oil industry has significantly declined. In 2019, the U.S. began comprehensive sanctions against Venezuelan oil, causing daily production to plummet to a low of 636,000 barrels in 2021.
For the current Biden administration, releasing Saab represents a further compromise with the Venezuelan government. In October, the Venezuelan government and the U.S.-supported opposition reached a political agreement, allowing international observers, including the EU and the UN, to monitor Venezuela's elections in the second half of 2024. The U.S. views this reconciliation as a significant advancement for Venezuelan democratic politics and has agreed to temporarily suspend sanctions on Venezuelan oil and natural gas.
The Biden administration's concessions are also closely related to the upcoming U.S. elections. This year, the Federal Reserve's multiple interest rate hikes to combat inflation have led to increased living costs, compounded by rising international energy prices, causing a significant surge in U.S. food and energy prices. As inflation and energy prices are key concerns for voters, the Biden administration is determined to take measures to lower energy prices to win voter support. Biden's suspension of sanctions on Venezuelan energy exports and efforts to improve relations with the Venezuelan government are all aimed at demonstrating his efforts to contain energy prices to voters.
Another consideration for U.S. voters is whether the Biden administration can control illegal immigration at the southern U.S.-Mexico border. Hindered development of Venezuela's crucial oil industry, coupled with Maduro's authoritarian management, has led to economic stagnation in the country. According to the latest data from the United Nations Refugee Agency, over 400,000 people (63% of whom are Venezuelan) sought asylum in North America through Panama in the first nine months of 2023, with most choosing to continue through Mexico into the United States. Biden aims to show voters that he is reducing the number of illegal immigrants by improving the development levels of their countries of origin.
Additionally, the Biden administration believes that six of the ten American prisoners released by Venezuela were "wrongfully detained," as the Venezuelan side lacked sufficient legal evidence. The administration's ability to reunite these compatriots with their families before Christmas without firing a shot will undoubtedly deepen American voters' favorable impression. Earlier this week, U.S. 2024 election Republican candidate Trump was deemed ineligible to serve as president by a Colorado court, further increasing Biden's chances of reelection.
Among the prisoners released by Venezuela, arms dealer "Fat Leonard" (Leonard Glenn Francis), involved in one of the largest bribery scandals in U.S. military history, had been under house arrest by the U.S. government for bribing the U.S. Navy in exchange for classified materials. He later cut off his GPS monitoring ankle bracelet and fled to Venezuela via Mexico and Cuba, where he was arrested by Venezuelan authorities. The U.S. had previously offered a $40,000 bounty for his capture.
