More than 50 million people across the Gulf Coast and Southeast are at risk of severe weather and flash flooding as a strengthening surface low-pressure system sweeps across the southern tier of the United States. The National Weather Service warns that severe thunderstorms, accompanied by significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes, are expected to impact central and east Texas, as well as portions of Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle on Monday.
The storm system, which will continue to move east through mid-week, is set to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding to the region. A moderate risk of flooding is in effect from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, with the possibility of heavy rainfall extending further north into parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest.
On Tuesday, the severe thunderstorm threat is expected to diminish, but isolated severe storms with heavy rainfall may still affect the Southeast as the warm front lifts north across the region and the trailing cold front moves across the Lower Mississippi Valley. By Tuesday night, showers and storms are forecast to expand into the Northeast, before the southern low-pressure system pushes into the Atlantic on Wednesday.
The South has been battered by several rounds of rain and severe thunderstorms over the past week, with severe storms moving through Texas and into Louisiana on Sunday, bringing tennis ball-sized hail and prompting tornado watches and flash flood warnings. In Tallahassee, Florida, officials are warning residents to "stay weather aware" as the city continues to recover from Friday's deadly tornadoes and 100 mph winds, which left close to 20% of Leon County without power.
On Monday, powerful winds, hail up to 4 inches in diameter, and a handful of tornadoes are expected as storms advance into the Gulf Coast and another wall of severe storms begins to ramp up across eastern Texas and Louisiana. The heaviest downpours are forecast from southeastern Louisiana to western Florida, with rainfall rates potentially reaching 3 inches per hour and combining with Sunday's storms to reach as high as 8 inches of total rainfall.
River gauges across eastern Texas and Louisiana are still running high from the rainfall over a week ago, including the Trinity River, which remains in major flood stage northeast of Houston. Several other rivers across both states are at moderate flood stage, leaving the region especially vulnerable to flash flooding as soils have little capacity to absorb more water.
Texas, in particular, has been pounded by a relentless series of severe weather events since early April. Dozens of tornadoes have struck the state, leaving paths of destroyed homes and businesses in their wake, while softball-sized hail and months' worth of rain have soaked East Texas, causing rivers to rise to levels not seen since the devastating floods of Hurricane Harvey in 2017.
In early May, more than 200 people had to be rescued from homes and vehicles in Harris County, Texas, as downpours caused rivers to overflow and roads were plunged underwater. Many people were forced to leave livestock stranded, and more than 150 pets were rescued in the storms, according to Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo.
