Security services across Europe are on high alert following a series of mysterious fires and sabotage attacks on infrastructure in the Baltics, Germany, and the UK. These incidents, suspected to be orchestrated by Moscow, have raised concerns about a new dimension of Russia's hybrid warfare tactics aimed at destabilizing the West, which has strongly supported Ukraine.
When a fire erupted at an Ikea store in Vilnius, Lithuania, earlier this month, it initially seemed like an isolated incident. However, suspicions grew after Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk suggested foreign sabotage might be at play. This incident is part of a broader pattern of suspected Russian involvement in various acts of sabotage across Europe, including an arson attack in east London, a massive blaze at Poland's largest shopping mall, a sabotage attempt in Bavaria, Germany, and antisemitic graffiti in Paris.
A New Era of Hybrid Warfare
European security services are now considering the possibility that these attacks are part of a coordinated effort by Russia to undermine Western stability. This form of hybrid warfare, which blends traditional espionage with modern-day cyber tactics and physical sabotage, poses a significant challenge to security agencies.
"After the Cold War, foreign intelligence operations primarily involved spies and their handlers. In today's era of social media, vandals can be hired as pay-as-you-go saboteurs, paid in euros or cryptocurrency, leaving few connections to other attackers," said a senior European security official who requested anonymity.
This growing concern was a focal point at a recent summit of foreign and defense ministers in Brussels, where officials from the Netherlands, Estonia, and Lithuania highlighted their vulnerabilities. One unnamed minister expressed deep worry about "sabotage, physical sabotage, organized, financed, and executed by Russian proxies."
Recent Arrests and Investigations
Polish authorities recently arrested nine individuals in connection with acts of sabotage allegedly commissioned by Russian services. These crimes reportedly included beatings, arson, and attempted arson. Investigators are also probing whether Russia was involved in a fire at a Warsaw shopping center, a claim dismissed as a conspiracy theory by the Russian embassy.
In Lithuania, investigations are ongoing into the Ikea fire, with a spokesperson stating that the source of the fire is still under examination. Similarly, in the UK, a British man was accused of orchestrating an arson attack on businesses linked to a Ukrainian businessman, allegedly under the direction of Russian intelligence.
Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur confirmed that Estonia has also been a target of Russian sabotage. "They have conducted similar operations here, hiring people to attack the interior minister's and a journalist's cars. This is typical behavior from Russia, and we must recognize their increasing aggressiveness towards European and NATO countries," he said.
Broader Impact and Responses
In Germany, suspicions of Russian-driven attacks have been compounded by a wave of cyber-attacks attributed to a hacker group linked to Russian intelligence. Two German-Russian nationals were recently arrested on suspicion of plotting sabotage attacks, including on a military base in Bavaria.
France is also investigating whether antisemitic graffiti on Paris's Holocaust memorial was orchestrated by Russian security services. This follows a similar incident last year when the Star of David was spray-painted on buildings around Paris.
These physical attacks are part of a broader strategy that includes a disinformation campaign aimed at sowing chaos and distrust. For instance, several schools in Athens were evacuated following a bomb hoax traced to a Russian server. Lithuanian national crisis management authorities have urged businesses and organizations to remain vigilant.
International Collaboration and Vigilance
European nations are ramping up security measures in response to these threats. The Dutch national coordinator for security and counter-terrorism has warned of potential subversive operations in the Netherlands, emphasizing the need for increased vigilance.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has acknowledged the rise in Russian intelligence activity across the alliance, leading to heightened vigilance. "We have seen several arrests of individuals accused of arson or sabotage, indicating increased Russian intelligence activity," he said.
Experts warn that these attacks may be the early stages of a systematic activation of Russian sleeper cells. Joseph Fitsanakis, a professor of Intelligence and National Security Studies, described this as an "unprecedented phenomenon in Western post-war history," highlighting the need for comprehensive security strategies.
As Europe braces for potential escalation, the focus is on securing critical infrastructure and enhancing coordination among NATO and EU member states. "We are vulnerable due to our extensive infrastructure, and we must remain vigilant against these hybrid threats," said Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren.
