Recent events in Russia have raised questions about the stability of President Vladimir Putin's grip on power. The arrest of Major General Ivan Popov, a senior Russian commander, has fueled speculation about potential unrest within the Russian military and government. This development follows a series of dismissals and arrests among top military officials, which some analysts suggest could indicate growing discontent and a risk of a coup.
Popov, who previously commanded the 58th Guards Combined Arms Army in Ukraine's occupied Zaporizhzhia region, was arrested on May 17 on charges of misappropriating humanitarian aid funds. He is accused of fraudulently obtaining over 130 million rubles ($1.5 million) worth of metal. Despite requests from investigators to place him under house arrest, a military court ruled to keep him in pre-trial detention for at least two months.
Popov's arrest is part of a broader pattern of high-level changes within the Russian Defense Ministry. Earlier this month, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was dismissed, and three of his deputies resigned. These moves were accompanied by a corruption scandal that led to the arrests of several senior officials, including Deputy Minister Timur Ivanov, who is accused of accepting bribes totaling $11 million.
The timing and nature of these arrests have led to widespread speculation about their underlying causes. Some observers, such as Trent Telenko, a former Pentagon official, have suggested that these actions are part of Putin's efforts to "coup-proof" his regime by eliminating potential threats within the military. Telenko noted, "His removal is about Putin 'Coup proofing' his military."
This narrative has been echoed by others, including Ukrainian military blogger Igor Sushko, who has argued that the arrests are indicative of rising coup risks within Russia. Sushko stated, "Popov's arrest and the decision to keep him detained in prison is a sign of a 'COUP RISK RISING IN RUSSIA,'" adding that there are "whispers of a rebellion among the soldiers."
Adding to the intrigue, the Kremlin has denied that these arrests are part of a coordinated campaign. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed the notion, stating, "Of course, there is no talk of any campaigning here. It continues in all departments, be it either federal departments or at the municipal level."
The backdrop to these events includes long-standing grievances and systemic issues within the Russian military. Popov, for instance, was previously removed from his post after criticizing the Russian Defense Ministry for inadequate support and high casualty rates among soldiers. In a recording published by Russian MP Andrei Gurulyov, Popov revealed that he had raised these concerns with top military officials but was dismissed for his outspokenness. "The senior chiefs apparently sensed some kind of danger from me," Popov said.
The broader context of these arrests also involves a corruption scandal that has implicated several high-ranking officials. The head of personnel at Russia's Defense Ministry, Yuri Kuznetsov, was arrested on suspicion of bribery, with more than $1 million in cash and valuables found at his properties. These developments have heightened scrutiny of the Defense Ministry and contributed to the perception of instability within the Kremlin.
The recent upheaval comes at a critical time for Putin, as Russia continues its military operations in Ukraine. The war has placed significant strain on the Russian military, and the leadership changes could reflect attempts to improve efficiency and address mismanagement. The appointment of Andrei Belousov, a former deputy prime minister with no military background, as the new defense minister is seen by some as part of this strategy to streamline the war economy.
While the speculation about a potential coup remains unconfirmed, the series of arrests and dismissals highlights the challenges facing Putin's administration. The echoes of Yevgeny Prigozhin's attempted mutiny in 2023, coupled with the ongoing war in Ukraine, have created a volatile environment. The swift changes in the military's top brass indicate efforts to consolidate power and address internal dissent, but they also reveal underlying tensions that could pose a threat to Putin's long-term control.
