As summer officially begins next week, the United States is bracing for a surge of extreme weather events, including record-breaking heat waves, rising wildfire risks, and the potential formation of the first tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season. These phenomena underscore the increasing impact of climate change driven by fossil fuel pollution, even in the absence of an El Niño.
An expansive and exceptionally strong heat dome is set to develop over the eastern half of the country starting Sunday, significantly raising temperatures in the Midwest and Great Lakes regions in the following days. Heat domes trap air in place, resulting in prolonged periods of high temperatures that intensify each day. This impending heat wave is expected to push temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal, with some areas experiencing temperatures up to 25 degrees above average from Tuesday through Friday.
The heat wave will bring daytime highs well into the 90s for tens of millions of Americans unaccustomed to such sustained heat. Nighttime temperatures will offer little relief, with lows remaining in the low 70s or upper 60s in many locations. This combination of high temperatures and humidity will elevate the heat index to dangerous levels, with parts of the East experiencing heat indices in the low 100s, potentially reaching as far north as Maine.
The health risks associated with this heat wave are severe. The National Weather Service and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have warned that extreme heat poses significant health threats, especially since heat is the deadliest form of weather in the U.S., causing more fatalities annually than hurricanes and tornadoes combined.
In parallel with the heat wave, the Atlantic hurricane season appears poised to awaken. Two areas of concern could produce the first tropical system of the year, with one in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico having the highest likelihood. Robust tropical moisture and favorable conditions could facilitate the formation of a tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche by midweek. The warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico would provide ample fuel for any developing storm, potentially tracking north or northwest.
Regardless of tropical development, the surge of moisture will bring much-needed rain to parts of Mexico suffering from extreme heat and drought. However, this moisture also increases the flood risk along the Gulf Coast, from Texas to Alabama, where multiple days of rain are expected starting Sunday and continuing throughout the week.
The ongoing heat also exacerbates wildfire risks across the West. The National Interagency Fire Center reports a gradual increase in fire activity nationwide, with almost a dozen large fires currently burning. Hot and dry conditions, coupled with gusty winds expected later this weekend, could further ignite and spread wildfires. Notable fires include the Corral Fire in California and the Rose Fire in Arizona, which has already destroyed multiple structures and vehicles.
The extreme weather conditions forecasted are consistent with long-range predictions. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center had anticipated heat waves along the I-95 corridor during summer outlooks released last winter. The persistent heat appears likely to continue with only limited interruptions through the first half of the summer.
This year's weather contrasts starkly with the milder conditions experienced last summer, emphasizing the escalating impacts of climate change. As temperatures soar and wildfire risks increase, public health experts urge residents to take precautions against heat-related illnesses such as heat exhaustion and heatstroke. These conditions, which occur when the body cannot cool itself effectively, are particularly dangerous for young children and older adults.
