Former President Donald Trump has significantly reduced President Joe Biden's lead in New York, with notable increases in support from Black and Jewish voters, according to a new poll by Siena College. The survey, conducted among 805 registered voters, shows Biden leading Trump by a margin of 47% to 39%, within the poll's 4.1% margin of error, indicating a potentially tighter race.
The poll reveals that Trump's support among Black voters has surged to 29%, a substantial increase from the 6% he secured in the 2020 presidential election. This shift is particularly striking given the historical voting patterns of this demographic. Similarly, Trump's support among Jewish voters has risen to 46%, compared to the 30% he garnered in the last election. This increase comes amidst growing dissatisfaction within the Jewish community over Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict and perceived indecisiveness regarding Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's actions.
Despite these gains, the overall trend is not reflected at the national level, where Biden has recently improved his standing against Trump. A Fox News poll indicates that Biden now leads Trump by 50% to 48% in a hypothetical two-way race, marking the first time Biden has been ahead since October of last year. This uptick coincides with positive perceptions of the economy, with 32% of registered voters rating it as "excellent" or "good," a slight improvement that may be attributed to recent positive inflation data.
Trump's performance in New York is notable given the state's historical voting patterns. In 2020, Biden won New York by 23.1 percentage points, and Hillary Clinton secured a similar margin in 2016. The last Republican to win New York was Ronald Reagan in 1984. However, Trump's current polling suggests he is outperforming his party, with the GOP trailing Democrats by 15 percentage points on the generic congressional ballot (50% to 35%).
The Siena poll underscores the shifting dynamics within the electorate. Trump's campaign has seized upon these results, with spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt stating, "New Yorkers are waking up to the fact that Joe Biden and the Democrats are running their historic city into the ground." She added, "As a native New Yorker who helped build the city's skyline, President Trump is the leader who can make New York and America great again."
The former president has actively courted minority voters, emphasizing issues such as illegal immigration and economic challenges. At a recent rally in the South Bronx, Trump argued that Black and Hispanic communities have been disproportionately affected by record illegal immigration and high inflation under Biden's administration.
Despite the positive polling data for Trump in New York, Biden continues to lead in national surveys. The Fox News poll highlights a shift in voter sentiment, with Biden gaining ground on issues such as the economy and immigration. The poll shows that voters' trust in Trump's economic management has decreased, with his advantage over Biden on this issue falling from 13 to 5 percentage points in just a month.
Immigration remains a contentious issue, with Biden's recent crackdown on asylum-seeking after daily border encounters hit a new threshold. This move appears to have bolstered his standing among voters concerned about border security, narrowing Trump's lead on this issue from 15 to 9 percentage points.
