In a stark escalation of nuclear threats, Russian President Vladimir Putin has lowered the threshold for deploying nuclear weapons, warning that any conventional attack on Russia supported by a nuclear power will be regarded as a joint attack. This shift, unveiled during a meeting of Russia's Security Council on Wednesday, signals a significant revision of Moscow's nuclear doctrine, aimed at deterring the West from further involvement in Ukraine's defense.
The modified doctrine introduces broad and ambiguous triggers for nuclear retaliation, including a conventional attack by non-nuclear nations that receive backing from nuclear powers. Putin's announcement, though aimed at Ukraine's Western allies, raises concerns globally as it marks a considerable expansion in the conditions under which Russia could resort to its nuclear arsenal.
"We will consider such a possibility when we receive reliable information about a massive launch of air and space attack assets and them crossing our state border," Putin explained, referencing potential threats from aircraft, drones, and cruise missiles. He further warned that even conventional air attacks, if perceived as a critical threat to Russian sovereignty, could provoke a nuclear response. The new phrasing contrasts with Russia's previous doctrine, which limited nuclear weapons use to cases where ballistic missiles targeted Russia or its allies.
This revised stance follows months of rising tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine's use of longer-range weaponry provided by NATO allies. These weapons have allowed Kyiv to target Russian territory, sparking a series of retaliatory threats from Moscow. Putin has now linked any NATO involvement in such attacks to potential nuclear conflict, effectively lowering the bar for a nuclear response.
"Conditions for Russia's move to use nuclear weapons are clearly stated," Putin said, underscoring the changes. Although he didn't explicitly confirm that nuclear weapons would be used in such scenarios, the ambiguity is seen as a deliberate tactic to increase pressure on the West. Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at RAND, cautioned about the global implications of Russia's doctrine shift, stating, "Regardless of whether you think this is a bluff or not, it's never good when a major nuclear power loosens the conditions for nuclear use in its declaratory policy."
Putin's comments came as the Biden administration announced an additional $375 million in military aid to Ukraine, including artillery, armored vehicles, and munitions for rocket systems. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized the United States' commitment to supporting Ukraine's defense against Russia's continued aggression. "The United States is committed to Ukraine's defense against Russia's brutal aggression," Blinken said. "We will deploy this new assistance as quickly as possible to help Ukraine protect its territory and its people."
The timing of Russia's revised nuclear doctrine aligns with growing tensions over Ukraine's calls for permission to strike deeper into Russian territory using Western-supplied long-range weapons. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been pushing for such capabilities during high-level meetings in Washington, including talks with President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.
While the U.S. has refrained from granting explicit approval for these long-range strikes, Moscow's updated doctrine appears to be a pre-emptive response to such a possibility. The Kremlin's strategy aims to deter NATO from allowing Ukraine to carry out further attacks that could target deeper into Russian territory, effectively bringing the conflict closer to the heart of Russia.
Putin also clarified that the revised doctrine allows for the use of nuclear weapons in defense of Belarus, a close Russian ally. He noted that he had reached an agreement with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, ensuring that aggression against Belarus would be treated similarly to an attack on Russia itself. Belarus, which has become increasingly reliant on Moscow's support, has already permitted the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons on its territory.
This revision of Russia's nuclear policy reflects the growing anxiety within the Kremlin as the war in Ukraine stretches into its third year. Despite steady, albeit slow, gains on the battlefield, the conflict has become a prolonged and bloody stalemate, with the Kremlin seeking new ways to deter Western aid to Kyiv. Moscow's nuclear posturing, though consistent throughout the conflict, has now taken a more dangerous turn as it broadens the scenarios in which nuclear weapons might be deployed.
