Ukraine's population has dropped by approximately 10 million people since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, according to a United Nations report, marking a staggering demographic crisis for the war-torn nation. The decline, which represents nearly a quarter of Ukraine's population, is attributed to a combination of refugees fleeing the country, war-related deaths, and a collapse in fertility rates. Florence Bauer, head of the United Nations Population Fund for Eastern Europe, highlighted the severity of the situation at a recent press conference in Geneva.
"The birth rate has plummeted to around one child per woman, which is among the lowest in the world," Bauer stated. A fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is necessary to maintain a stable population, underscoring the depth of Ukraine's demographic challenges. Ukraine's population, which stood at over 50 million when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, has been steadily declining due to various factors even before the war. By 2021, just before the invasion, the population had fallen to around 40 million.
The UN estimates that 6.7 million Ukrainians have fled the country since the onset of the conflict, settling primarily in European nations. In addition to those who left, tens of thousands of lives have been lost due to the fighting, although the exact number of casualties is difficult to ascertain in the midst of ongoing hostilities. Bauer emphasized that the true extent of Ukraine's population loss can only be determined once the war ends and a full census is conducted.
Beyond the immediate impact of the war, the demographic shift is reshaping Ukraine's regions. Entire villages, particularly in the east, have been depopulated, with many left occupied only by the elderly. Young families, meanwhile, have put plans to start or grow their families on hold, further exacerbating the country's birth rate crisis.
While Ukraine struggles with a declining population, Russia, with a pre-war population of over 140 million, is also facing a demographic decline. Russia recorded its lowest birth rate since 1999 in the first half of 2024, a trend that even the Kremlin has described as "catastrophic."
One of the immediate consequences of Ukraine's demographic crisis is the country's plummeting birth rate, which is now the lowest in Europe. Stefan Khmil, an OB-GYN doctor based in western Ukraine, has dedicated his 50-year career to helping families conceive children. Since the Russian invasion, however, his work has taken on a new urgency. "Many doctors and patients were displaced because of the war," Khmil told NPR. In response, his clinic in Lviv has taken on the critical role of preserving biological material, including eggs and sperm, for families who still hope to have children once the conflict subsides.
Khmil's clinic was the first in Ukraine to offer free sperm and egg freezing for military personnel, a service made available in March 2024 after President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a law allowing soldiers to preserve their reproductive cells. "We can give these men who are fighting the opportunity to have children after the war, during war, whenever they want," Khmil explained. His clinic has since helped over 400 families, with more than 60 children born as a result.
Viktoriia Onyshchuk, a combat medic serving on the front lines, traveled hours to Khmil's clinic in Lviv to undergo an egg harvesting procedure. "I have been trying to have children since 2010," Onyshchuk said. Her husband, who is also a soldier, had his sperm frozen earlier in the conflict, but her duties on the front lines have made it difficult for her to receive treatment. Despite the challenges, Onyshchuk remains committed to the cause. "We don't know what will happen to our country. When peacetime comes, somebody will have to rebuild it," she said.
Ukraine's demographic crisis, however, did not begin with the war. Since gaining independence in 1991, Ukraine has experienced one of the most dramatic population declines in Eastern Europe. The country's birth rate had been steadily falling even before Russia's invasion, as more Ukrainians left the country for better opportunities abroad and as modern, industrialized lifestyles took hold. In 2023, Ukraine's Health Ministry reported that the country was averaging about 16,100 births per month, down from 21,000 to 23,000 per month before the war.
According to Tymofii Brik, rector of the Kyiv School of Economics, multiple factors contribute to Ukraine's population decline. "Even long before the Russian invasion, Ukrainian men had some of the highest mortality rates in Europe," Brik said. A combination of risky work, poor health outcomes, and lower life expectancy, along with economic migration, have all played a role in reducing the population.
Efforts like those of Dr. Khmil are helping to stem the tide of Ukraine's population crisis, but the road to recovery will be long and challenging. Svitlana Teleniuk, who recently gave birth to twins conceived with her husband's frozen sperm, will raise her children alone after her husband died on the front lines. "The boy is an absolute copy of my husband," Teleniuk said, looking at her son's smiling face. Her story is one of many reflecting both the human cost of war and the resilience of Ukrainian families determined to ensure a future for their country.
