Russia assesses that six months of U.S. military operations against Iran have strained American weapons inventories enough to create an opportunity for Moscow to increase pressure on Washington and its NATO allies in Europe, according to U.S. intelligence assessments reported by The Washington Post.
The assessment comes as European NATO members strengthen protection around critical infrastructure and U.S. officials scrutinize Russia's intentions beyond Ukraine. President Donald Trump, however, has publicly played down the prospect of a Russian attack on NATO territory and rejected suggestions that an unusual CIA visit to Moscow reflected an immediate crisis.
According to The Washington Post, classified U.S. intelligence reports indicate that Moscow believes American operations against Tehran, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, have consumed substantial quantities of military equipment and ammunition. The reports describe serious pressure on inventories of weapons that could also be needed in a major conflict elsewhere.
Among the weapons cited as particularly constrained are Tomahawk cruise missiles and the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS. The reported depletion is significant because both systems have roles extending beyond the Middle East and could factor into U.S. planning for contingencies involving Europe or other regions.
The assessment has also provided new context for CIA Director John Ratcliffe's unannounced trip to Russia last week. One person familiar with the intelligence told The Washington Post that the visit was "less about Putin being in a corner" over Russia's limited progress in Ukraine and "more because Russia assesses we are depleted and can't intervene."
Ratcliffe warned that further Russian escalation could have the opposite effect Moscow intends by pushing Trump closer to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, according to the report. The visit nevertheless underscored growing concern about whether the Kremlin sees Washington's Middle East commitments as an opening to test Western resolve in Europe.
Trump rejected the idea that the circumstances represented an unusual threat. "There is no problem," Trump told Axios when asked about the situation.
The president also characterized Ratcliffe's Moscow visit as routine contact between intelligence officials. "Ratcliffe sees his Russian counterpart once every six months or once every year. They have a very good relationship. There was no message and there was nothing unusual," Trump said.
Trump didn't say whether the U.S. privately warned Russian President Vladimir Putin against further escalation, but he dismissed concerns that Moscow could directly challenge the alliance. Russia is "not going to attack NATO territory," Trump said.
That confidence contrasts with concerns emerging from NATO's eastern flank. Reuters reported that Lithuania, Poland, Latvia and Estonia have been preparing for possible Russian sabotage or other operations against critical infrastructure, with Lithuania raising concerns that Moscow could stage a false-flag incident.
"We are not naive, we see the information, we read between the lines and we are doing our homework," Lithuanian Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas told Reuters.
Lithuania has stepped up security around strategically important facilities as officials assess the threat. "We are increasing the security of our critical infrastructure, we constantly exchange information with our intelligence on what to do next," Kaunas said.
The broader concern extends beyond sabotage. A separate U.S. intelligence assessment reportedly raised the possibility that Putin could eventually authorize a limited military action against a NATO member designed to test whether the alliance would respond collectively, although officials assessed the likelihood of such an attack as low.
A cyberattack is another scenario under consideration, according to the reported intelligence. Such an operation could allow Moscow to probe NATO cohesion without immediately crossing the threshold into a conventional military confrontation.
