Republicans have spent $133 million on television advertising in 15 congressional districts redrawn to favor their candidates, yet their nationwide redistricting campaign could produce a net advantage of just one seat as Democrats counter with maps of their own, Axios reported.
Senior Republican strategists privately expect to capture between seven and 12 of the targeted seats, according to the outlet. If Republicans finish at the bottom of that range and Democrats secure six pickups, the map changes would leave the GOP only one seat ahead.
That outcome would fall far short of early expectations for a net gain of roughly 10 seats. The $133 million, measured by AdImpact, represents television advertising in the redrawn districts rather than the cost of designing or legally defending the maps.
Republicans had counted on favorable boundaries to help preserve their House majority. Axios reported that rising prices, the Iran war and declining approval ratings for President Donald Trump have weakened that calculation, while a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll showed Democrats leading the national congressional vote by eight points.
Texas illustrates the gap between the original ambitions and the current outlook. Republicans sought five additional favorable seats there but now expect to win between two and four.
"Texas, I'd be surprised if we got all five," House Majority Whip Tom Emmer told Axios.
The party remains confident about the Houston-area 9th District and Dallas-area 32nd District. Its main House super PAC, however, has withdrawn from the 28th District, represented by Democrat Henry Cuellar, effectively conceding the contest, Axios reported.
Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez holds a narrow advantage over Republican Eric Flores in the 34th District, according to a New York Times/Siena poll cited by Axios. The 35th District remains closely contested, with both parties spending heavily.
Florida could deliver two or three of the four seats Republicans targeted. "Florida, I'd be shocked if we got all four," Emmer said.
Ohio offers another potential disappointment: Republicans could miss both targeted pickups and have already conceded one race, according to Axios. The newly favorable district in North Carolina is also considered a toss-up.
Republicans entered the summer with 16 districts on their target list, but Missouri's proposed map was blocked. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled September 25 that the state must use its 2022 boundaries in November, the Missouri Independent reported.
That preserved the existing district of Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, whose Kansas City constituency would otherwise have been extended into Republican-leaning rural counties.
The GOP remains confident of three gains across Alabama, Louisiana and Tennessee, where lawmakers changed maps following the Supreme Court's April decision in Louisiana v. Callais.
Democratic gains elsewhere could offset much of that progress. California's voter-approved redraw created four solidly Democratic opportunities and a fifth competitive seat; party strategists expect to win all five, Axios reported.
Utah offers another potential Democratic pickup after a judge rejected the legislature's map and selected boundaries placing nearly all of Democratic-leaning Salt Lake County in one district, KSL reported.
Trump encouraged Republican-led states to pursue the unusual mid-decade redraws, with Texas moving first in 2025 and California responding under Gov. Gavin Newsom. The competing maps face their first congressional election test on November 3.
