Nearly four in 10 Americans lack confidence that November's midterm elections will be conducted fairly and accurately, an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll found, even as majorities of both Democrats and Republicans trust the process.
The survey also revealed a wider gap between confidence in election administration and expectations for President Donald Trump's response to defeat. While 61% of Americans expressed confidence in the elections, 70% doubted Trump would accept the results if Republicans lost.
Conducted October 9-13, the poll found 38% were not confident in the fairness and accuracy of the November 3 vote. Among registered voters, confidence exceeded two-thirds, leaving roughly three in 10 doubtful about the process.
Democrats and Republicans were relatively close on that question, with confidence at 70% and 67%, respectively. Independents were almost evenly divided: 51% expressed confidence, while 47% did not.
The findings measure public perceptions of election administration, rather than evidence of problems with voting or counting ballots. They also show that skepticism is more pronounced among independents than among supporters of either major party.
On the narrower question of whether ballots would be counted accurately, 65% of Americans expressed confidence, including 26% who were very confident. Among registered voters, the overall figure rose to 72%.
Democrats again recorded the highest confidence, at 76%, followed by Republicans at 68% and independents at 55%. Trust in the count extended to 65% of MAGA Republicans and 66% of respondents who voted for Trump in 2024.
Expectations for Trump's willingness to accept Republican losses were considerably more polarized. Only 28% of Americans expressed confidence that he would, including 10% who were very confident. Half the public said they were not at all confident.
Among Democrats, 94% doubted Trump would accept an unfavorable outcome. That view was shared by 77% of independents, including 55% who expressed no confidence at all.
Republicans largely rejected those concerns: 63% expected Trump to accept the results, although just 25% were very confident. Confidence reached 74% among MAGA Republicans.
The poll separately found that 61% of Americans regarded Trump as uncommitted to free and fair elections, compared with 56% in 2025. Another 37% said he was committed.
Democratic leaders received stronger overall ratings on accepting defeat. Sixty-one percent of Americans expected them to accept losses, while 38% lacked confidence. Still, 63% of Republicans doubted Democratic leaders would accept an unfavorable result.
The electoral outlook favored Democrats without producing a clear public consensus about House control. Thirty-five percent expected a Democratic victory, compared with 16% anticipating Republican control; 28% called the contest a toss-up and 21% were unsure.
Among likely voters, Democratic congressional candidates led Republicans 52% to 44%. That eight-point national advantage measures voter preference and does not translate directly into a forecast of individual House seats.
The survey interviewed 2,545 adults through Ipsos' probability-based KnowledgePanel. Its overall margin of sampling error was plus or minus two percentage points, increasing to 2.2 points for registered and likely voters.
