A new study conducted by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the United States found that North China Plain, the most populous and agriculturally important region in the country, might push the boundaries of its habitability by the latter part of the century.
A similar study on the effects of extreme temperature and humidity was previously conducted in the Persian Gulf Area and South Asia. While deadly heat waves were also projected to push the boundaries of habitability in these two regions, NCP was found to be facing the greatest risks to human life across any location on Earth.
NCP is significantly at risk because of the extensive irrigation system needed to sustain the highly fertile but relatively dry region. The irrigation makes more water vulnerable to evaporation. High evaporation makes the air more humid, worsening the impacts of extreme temperature.
For the study, published in the journal Nature Communications on July 31, MIT researchers run detailed climate simulations of the NCP area. They chose the best models that clearly showed what transpired in the region's climate for the past 30 years. They used these models to project the future climate that may occur for the next 30 years at the end of this century.
The researchers use two different scenarios for their projections. The first scenario is business as usual where there is no effort done to mitigate emissions. The second scenario involves moderate reductions in emissions. Both situations were tested with and without consideration of the effects of irrigation.
The study revealed that under business as usual where there is no effort to reduce emissions, the NCP area would reach the threshold for habitability several times between 2070 and 2100.
"This spot is just going to be the hottest spot for deadly heat waves in the future, especially under climate change," the study said.
"China is currently the largest contributor to the emissions of greenhouse gases, with potentially serious implications to its own population: Continuation of the current pattern of global emissions may limit habitability of the most populous region of the most populous country on Earth," concluded Elfatih Eltahir and Suchul Kang, authors of the MIT study.
The study mentioned that NCP currently has already seen a significant increase in extreme heat waves in the last 50 years. In fact, the temperature in the region has been nearly double the global average. There had been heat waves in 2006 and 2013. Shanghai has broken a 141-year temperature in 2013, killing 12 people that year.
