The United States might already be in a recession and might not even realize it, argues a long-time investment fund manager with a track record of being a Wall Street bear.
David Tice, founder, and president of David W. Tice & Associates, LLC, an investment management and research firm based in Texas, believes the U.S. is in a recession, at worst, or might be a few months away from one.
A "bear" is an investor or business firm that believes the financial markets (or any asset within them) is going to fall in value.
"The big question: Is the U.S. in a recession or about to enter one?" said Tice. "We're either there or within two months away from that."
Whichever scenario is true, Tice warns investors a recession is about to hit the United States. He also believes the global economic slowdown will have a deleterious effect on the U.S. economy.
"There's certainly a lot of risk to the market here," said Tice. "I'm very, very worried about Europe and Asia where the declines are significant."
Tice claims a recession might be held off for another six or nine months because President Donald Trump doesn't want "to see the market go down in front of the election." History shows U.S. presidents seeking re-election in a year when the economy was in the dumps lost their re-election bids. Former president Jimmy Carter is a case in point.
Economists and Wall Street analysts blame Trump and his uncalled for but intractable trade war against China for the impending U.S. economic recession, which might strike as early as 2020.
Of the economists surveyed recently by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), 72% assert a recession will occur before the end of 2021. This figure is a marked increase from the 67% of economists that said so in February. NABE polled more than 200 economists throughout the U.S.
The new figure combines the 38% of economists that said they expect a recession to hit in 2020 with the 34% that said they see one hammering the US economy in 2021. In a survey conducted in February, 42% said they saw a 2020 recession, while only 25% saw one in 2021.
NABE is the largest international association of applied economists, strategists, academics, and policy-makers committed to the application of economics. Its mission is to provide leadership in the use and understanding of economics.
