As the Chinese central and local reserves of meat will be continuously put into market, along with the import of pork and beef increase significantly, the growth of pork price will fall thanks to the favorable policies and stable epidemic situation.
High pork prices have had a noticeable dampening effect on demand, with experts finding out that consumers are adjusting their menus to other meats as costs rise.
"The country's pig production capacity is showing signs of recovery, and the current rise in pork prices is not sustainable."Zhu Zengyong, an associate researcher at the institute of agricultural information under the Chinese academy of agricultural sciences, told The Economic Daily.
On October 31, the average wholesale price of pig carcass in Beijing Xinfandi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market was RMB48.26(USD6.89)/kg, up 53.21% from RMB31.5(USD4.5)/kg on October 1.
Since August, pork purchases in the canteens of enterprises and public institutions in Beijing have dropped by about 30% on month-on-month basis.Individual consumer purchases of pork have dropped nearly 30 percent since October. Merchants at the Xinfadi Agricultural Wholesale Market in Beijing said they sold 10 pieces of pig carcass a day in August, and they sell only seven pieces now, that is far cry from 14 during the same period last year.
"Although the daily market volume of pig carcass in Xinfadi Agricultural Wholesale Market has dropped a lot compared with the same period last year, some of them are still returned to the factory because they are unsalable."Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market statistics department manager Liu Tong said .
As pig prices continue to rise, many farmers are reluctant to sell. Monitoring data showed that in October, the live weight of hogs from Shandong Province and other major producing areas have increased from 120 kg to more than 140 kg under normal conditions.In view of the central and local level of reserve meat will continue to release, pork imports and beef imports have increased significantly, the increase in pork prices will fall.
Meanwhile, favourable policies will lead to the pork price decrease. The enthusiasm of bolting and increasing production around the country is obviously improved, which is expected to drive the recovery of pig production capacity.
Since September, with the implementation of various favorable policies of relevant departments to support pig production, the enthusiasm of farmers to supplement and increase production has been significantly improved.Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs data showed that the second half of pig farm capacity has been restored. So far, more than 20 provinces have introduced policies to support pig production. Under the policy support, the recent large-scale pig farm production recovery is fast.
In September, the number of pigs in China's large-scale pig farms with an annual output of more than 5,000 pigs increased by 0.6% on a month-on-month basis, among which the number of breeding sows increased by 3.7% on a month-on-month basis.
Pig feed production and sales overall rebound also confirmed the recovery of pig capacity.In September, the output of pig feed increased by 10%, among which the output of piglet feed, sow feed and finishing pig feed increased by 12.7%, 8.7% and 9.1% respectively.
From different regions, the production capacity of northeast and northwest China recovered significantly in September, and the stocks of pigs and breeding sows in Liaoning Province, Shandong Province, Heilongjiang Province, Hebei Province, Shanxi Province, Gansu Province and Jilin Province increased significantly month-on-month. Especially in the main producing areas such as Northeast China and Shandong Province, the stocks of pigs and breeding sows in August have started to increase month on month, which is expected to drive the production capacity of pigs from decline to comprehensive stabilization in the fourth quarter.
