Chinese domestic pork prices have plunged recently, which is no surprise. And the recession has started to have a positive and negative impact on global markets.
China is the largest consumer and importer of pork in the world, so much so that it has become the "biggest influence on the worldwide price and availability of pork," according to a study commissioned by the United States National Pork Commission.
"But the countrywide disaster caused by the African swine fever is not just generating shockwaves. It's an explosion that transforms both inside and outside China's very foundation of the pork chain," the study said.
The structural change has provided a windfall for Brazil, Australia and Europe's big meat producers. Because of Chinese tariffs and trade war, American manufacturers also gained less.
China became Brazil's largest market for imports of pork, beef, and chicken, even before the crisis. Yet, according to information from the agriculture ministries of both nations, the South American country's pork exports to China have risen by an estimated 40 percent since the start of the year.
Also, Brazil's sales of beef and chicken have increased as China tries to plug a nutrition deficit created by the lack of pork.
But while Brazil's pork producers may reap the benefits of Chinese demand, according to the University of São Paulo, this has caused domestic pork prices to rise by about 30 percent.
Last week, China granted Brazil the green light to sell swine offal to the Chinese market, a previously off-limited sub-category.
Elsewhere, Australian retail giant Coles said it is planning to sell hundreds of millions of dollars worth of quality cuts such as ribeye to more discerning customers in China, and it's beef exports to China have hit record levels this year, partly due to the decimated supply of local pork.
But while this may continue to be a blessing for pork exporters in the near term, in a matter of years it may wipe out their ability to compete with China's domestic production, as the nation is increasingly reshaping how it pork farmers grow, harvest, and distribute.
Around 50 percent of China's production of pork also exists on small farms. But these factory houses have been destroyed as China recovers from the outbreak, according to the report, which says "the backyard and semi-formal industries are incomplete in China, and pig production from this field would likely be negligible as early as 2025."
Meanwhile, Rabobank says it will take more than five years for China's pig population, once the largest in the world, to rebound from the African Swine Fever epidemic.
Even then, Rabobank International states that before the disease outbreak, their meat consumption will not be the same as before.
Until 2025, the largest pork market in the world will not stabilize, and meat imports will not compensate for the shortfall.
