One of the statistical models that convinced President Donald Trump to extend federal social distancing guidelines to April 30 is now available online. It predicts at least 2,000 deaths per day in the U.S. from COVID-19 until this disease spread peaks in mid-April and more than 80,000 deaths until early August.
The interactive statistical model simply called "COVID-19 Projections" is a data visualization model developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle. Its projections are based on assumptions covering the U.S. as a whole and each of the 50 States and Washington D.C.
The analysis relies on data from Italy, China, and the U.S., using past experiences to predict the future. The model assumes local officials will limit social contact through May through a series of actions. These actions will involve closing schools, demanding stay-at-home measures, and limiting travel and non-essential business. For states that don't implement at least three of the four measures, deaths will rise, according to the model. IHME is a research institute working in the area of global health statistics and impact evaluation.
COVID-19 Projections estimate April 14 will see the highest number of deaths per day in the U.S. from COVID-19 at 2,341. The 15 days from March 30 until April 14 will see a relentless rise in the daily U.S. death toll.
IHME estimates 938 new deaths per day on April 1; 1,561 deaths on April 5; 2,092 deaths on April 9; 2,253 deaths on April 11 and 2,334 deaths on April 13. Deaths will begin to decrease from April 18, which is projected to see 2,233 deaths per day. New deaths by April 30 are expected to fall to 1,354. By May 15, this toll is expected to shrink to 552 per day and to 205 by May 31. COVID-19 Projections expect no deaths on July 16. By August 4, COVID-19 Projections foresee 81,114 new COVID-19 deaths in the U.S.
As of 20:59 GMT Tuesday, the U.S. remains a world leader in a total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. It reported 184,487 total confirmed cases and 20,699 new cases. There were also 3,756 deaths, a rise of 615 from Monday, according to the data website, Worldometer. Of total U.S. cases, 75,795 were accounted for by New York State. The world reported 853,127 confirmed cases Tuesday (up 68,468) and 41,983 deaths (up 4,215).
COVID-19 Projections predict 224,000 hospital beds -- 61,000 more then is now available in the U.S. -- will be needed on April 15, when the U.S. is expected to reach what's called a "peak resource use."
Citing the IHME model, Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, said, "No state, no metro area will be spared" from COVID-19.
She urges tate and local officials to quickly react to the COVID-19 threat and enact social distancing measures, so "we'll be able to move forward together and protect most Americans." She warned deaths will be higher if states don't enact those measures, or if people don't follow them.
IHME researchers admit their estimate of 82,000 deaths in the US over the next four months "is an alarming number, but this number could be substantially higher if excess demand for health system resources is not addressed and if social distancing policies are not vigorously implemented and enforced across all states."
The nation's top infectious disease specialist, Dr. Anthony Fauci, told CNN's Jake Tapper on Sunday that substantially more people could die: "Looking at what we're seeing now, I would say that 100,000 and 200,000" deaths could occur.
