The White House's "Opening Up American Again" guidelines released Thursday afternoon enumerates specific steps that have to be met to move from phase-to-phase, but clearly indicates many states will have a difficult time meeting the basic requirement needed to enter Phase One.
The "starting line" for moving into Phase One is difficult and unreachable for many states. The "Proposed State or Regional Gating Criteria," which must be satisfied "before proceeding to phased opening," mandates a downward trajectory of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) within a 14-day period, and a downward trajectory of COVID-like syndromic cases reported within a 14-day period, as regard Symptoms.
No state is in this ideal position, or is anywhere near it, right now, not even states least affected by COVID-19
As regard Cases, the gating criteria require a downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period, and a downward trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing the volume of tests). No state is in this ideal position.
Apart from the presence of these downward trajectories, there must also be a "robust" system for testing healthcare workers. Many states have long and loudly complained the main hurdle preventing them from combating the pandemic more effectively is the scandalous lack of coronavirus testing kits. Widespread testing has always been seen as one of the key requirements for getting the U.S. back to a semblance of normalcy.
This scarcity means not every American that wants to be tested can be tested. There's also an increasing number of hospitalizations and deaths, especially among the elderly and more vulnerable populations, throughout the country. After states meet "Core State Preparedness Responsibilities," they can move to each of the three phases.
The Trump administration's "Proposed Phase Approach" is based on up-to-date data and readiness. It mitigates the risk of resurgence and intends to protect the most vulnerable (the elderly, especially those with co-morbid conditions such as diabetes and heart disease). The phases will be implementable on statewide or county-by-county basis at the governors' discretion.
Equally important, state governors (and not President Donald Trump) will be responsible for implementing the phased approach and not re-opening their states. Trump told governors on an earlier conference call "you're gonna call your shots," and said the guidelines are a recommendation. Trump earlier, and falsely claimed, he alone has the power and authority to re-open states.
Each of the three phases consists of a set of recommendations for individuals and employers. Phase one for all vulnerable individuals means these people should continue to shelter in place. Precautions should be taken to isolate vulnerable residents. It also recommends all individuals, when in public should maximize physical distance from others. It says social settings of more than 10 people should be avoided unless precautionary measures are observed.
Phase one for employers recommends they continue to encourage telework, whenever possible and feasible with business operations. If possible, employers have urged a return to work in phases. Employers are also urged to close common areas where employees are likely to congregate and interact. Strict social distancing protocols must be enforced.
Phase two for states and regions with no evidence of a rebound and that satisfy the gating criteria a second time means all vulnerable individuals should continue to shelter in place. Members of households with vulnerable residents should be aware that by returning to work or other environments where distancing is not practical, they might carry the virus back home. Precautions should be taken to isolate these people from vulnerable residents.
For employers, phase two means continuing to encourage telework, whenever possible and feasible. Common areas where personnel are likely to congregate and interact will remain closed. Non-essential travel can resume.
Phase three for states and regions with no evidence of a rebound and that satisfy the gating criteria a third time means vulnerable individuals can resume public interactions. Vulnerable individuals, however, should keep practicing physical distancing and minimize exposure to social settings where distancing may not be practical. Low-risk populations should consider minimizing the time spent in crowded environments.
For employers, phase three will see them reopen for business fully with unrestricted staffing at worksites.
