Bitter experience fighting COVID-19 has led medical experts to the grim conclusion that this disease doesn't strike in seasonal waves. Instead, COVID-19 is more akin to a forest fire that will keep raging as long as it has "human wood to burn."
The World Health Organization (WHO) sees it much the same way, but describes the pandemic as "one big wave" and not a seasonal affliction. Worse, COVID-19 will be with us until the end of time and never be eradicated.
These conclusions are gradually gaining acceptance in the global medical community. Early in the pandemic, doctors operated under the assumption that COVID-19 would behave much like seasonal influenza, which annually comes and goes in waves.
The bewildering and continuing spikes and relentless community spread of the disease in areas that had apparently mitigated COVID-19 suggested this disease's behavior is nothing like the flu. A slew of medical studies confirm COVID-19 is a new beast with its own peculiar characteristics.
"There's no evidence there's going to be a decrease in cases, a trough," said renowned epidemiologist Dr. Michael Osterholm. "It's just going to keep burning hot, kind of like a forest fire looking for human wood to burn."
Dr. Osterholm is director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota. He was among a group of experts tasked in April to write a report about the pandemic's approaching "second wave." Data and experience accumulated in this report dismissed the idea of a second wave, however.
Dr. Osterholm noted that back in April, doctors still believed COVID-19 was a pandemic where doctors would "see true waves." Doctors expected to see "big increases in cases and then a trough and then a second, bigger wave for reasons completely beyond human behavior, which has historically happened with other influenza pandemics."
"But now we see there are no waves," he said.
Replacing this notion is a new concept comparing COVID-19 to a raging forest fire that will keep on burning.
Dr. Osterholm asserts COVID-19 is more like "one long-term fire." He said the world is in the middle of "a fast burn scenario with peaks and valleys in different locations at different times."
He said this forest fire will keep blazing because is has "human wood" it can burn. Dr. Osterholm said the world should be prepared to accept the terrifying reality that COVID-19 will be with us permanently.
"We will be dealing with this virus forever," he said.
He said "the whole world is going to be experiencing COVID-19 'til the end of time. We're not going to be vaccinating our way out of this to eight-plus billion people in the world right now."
WHO spokesperson Dr. Margaret Harris said the organization views COVID-19 as "one big wave." She also said the disease doesn't share flu's tendency to follow seasons.
"People are still thinking about seasons," she said. "What we all need to get our heads around is this is a new virus and ... this one is behaving differently."
What the world is experiencing is one massive wave that ebbs and rises but keeps on engulfing everything before it.
