If Democratic Party candidate for U.S. president Joe Biden retains his leads over president Donald Trump among women, minorities and independents he should win the election, according to the latest polls.
The newest ABC News/Washington Post poll gives Biden big leads among these demographics with 37 days remaining before Americans vote for their next president Nov. 3.
The latest FiveThirtyEight election forecasting model predicts Biden will win 352 of 538 electoral votes. A total of 270 Electoral College votes are needed to become U.S. president. In the U.S. it is the winner of the Electoral College that goes on to become president.
The ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Biden has a 54% to 44% popular-vote advantage over Trump in a two-way contest - which is similar to a previous national ABC/Post poll in mid-August. Biden's support drops to 49% when Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins are included. Trump's support falls to 43%.
Biden's lead among women is wide. He leads Trump by 28 points - 60% to 32% - among suburban women. Biden has a 57-point blowout lead among Independent women: 77% to 20%. Suburban women trust Biden more to handle crime than Trump by 61% to 37%.
Biden wins 52% to 47% among all suburban voters on account of strength among women. He enjoys a two-to-one edge among voters younger than 30 and a lead among likely voters age 50 and older. He is ahead of Trump 50% to 44% on crime and safety.
It is the opposite story among men. Trump has a 60% to 38% edge among suburban men. Trump holds an eight-point lead among Independent men. Suburban men trust Trump more on crime by 20 points.
The two top issues in the presidential election are COVID-19 and the economy.
The poll shows Biden 11 points ahead of Trump in handling the pandemic. The poll shows 62% of adults worry they or an immediate family member may catch COVID-19 - which has led to more than 200,000 American deaths. Likely voters who express this concern favor Biden, 71% to 27%.
Biden is ahead 16 points on health care and 20 points on treatment of race. Biden and Trump are head-to-head as to who voters trust to handle the economy. Trump is ahead 49% to 46%.
