President-elect Joe Biden's ambitious plan aimed at getting every major country to boost their domestic climate targets needs China in the loop, and that might not be that tough a task.
Climate change is one area the U.S. and China see eye-to-eye amid the dangerous geopolitical tensions stoked by President Donald Trump. The U.S. and China also have a shared incentive to battle climate change together.
They're the world's two top emitters of carbon dioxide, the gas mainly responsible for global warming. In 2018, China spewed 10.06 gigatons of CO2 into the atmosphere. The U.S. was the second most avid CO2 polluter at 5.41GT.
The incoming president, in his Biden Plan election platform, recognizes the importance of getting China fully involved in his effort to combat climate change. His climate plan said his administration will enter into future bilateral U.S.-China agreements on carbon mitigation and on other areas needed in the fight against climate change.
Biden will also seek a commitment among G20 countries, which include China, to stop subsidizing high-carbon projects internationally.
Biden said the U.S. will lead the world in combating the climate emergency and lead through the power of example by ensuring the country achieves a 100% clean energy economy and net-zero emissions no later than 2050. China also has 2050 as its deadline for carbon neutrality along with immense challenges to achieving this aim.
Biden's climate goals will position the U.S. in "a much stronger position on climate change leadership," said Gavin Thompson, Asia Pacific vice chairman for energy, of Wood Mackenzie, a global energy consultancy based in Scotland.
"Achieving net-zero is fundamentally about taking action at home, but at the same time, the Biden administration's broader goals on climate change will be harder to achieve without actively engaging with Beijing," according to Thompson.
"Agreeing targets, measuring progress and penalizing non-compliance will be more achievable through multilateral collaboration. China is critical to this, not only in terms of domestic policy but also the ability to help move other countries towards change."
Thompson, however, said it remains to be seen if the U.S. under Biden's climate goals will be a source of conflict or an opportunity to collaborate with China. Tensions created by Trump will weigh on China-U.S. relations under Biden.
To attain carbon neutrality, China will have to slash its coal use by 96% by 2050, slash natural gas use by 75%, and cut oil use by 65%. Reductions this large will strangle China's economic growth if not managed properly.
