By the end of the century, the snow season in states like California could be virtually non-existent, affecting water supply systems, flora and fauna, rivers, and even the wildfire season.
The western United States' water infrastructure is built on a melting foundation, and scientists fear that unless we address global warming, the consequences will be disastrous.
Researchers project that if fossil fuel emissions do not decrease, snowpack in the Sierra Nevada and Cascade ranges may plummet by up to 45% by 2050, with low snow or no snow seasons becoming the norm.
That's a significant shift from the past. Only 8% to 14%of the years between 1950 and 2000 were designated as "low-to-no snow." However, between 2050 and 2099, that percentage might rise to 94%, turning a once-in-a-lifetime event into a near-yearly occurrence.
Alan Rhoades, a hydroclimate researcher, described to the Los Angeles Times of the "shocking" projections.
"As a kid who grew up in the Sierra, it's kind of hard to fathom a low- to no-snow future," Rhoades said.
The Sierra Nevada snowpack contributes around 30% of California's water in a typical year. However, the state has recently experienced severe "snow drought" conditions.
For example, in the spring of 2021, the Sierras got only 59% of their normal snowfall. Warm temperatures in May had decreased this to less than 10%. By June, the snowpack had almost completely disappeared.
It's difficult to say how much worse things will grow in the future because yearly snowpacks are determined by a complicated set of circumstances.
By evaluating all of the current studies on future snowfall estimates in western states, Rhoades and his colleagues have established one of the most accurate timetables to date.
After reviewing the data, the authors discovered that after 2050, all locations in the western United States will suffer an "abrupt transition" in snowpack levels, with back-to-back years of snow drought projected.
Any year in which the snowpack falls below the 30th percentile of the historical peak is classified as a 'low snow' season, according to the authors. Seasons with no snow occur when the number falls below the 10th percentile.
If global warming continues at its current rate, California's mountains might see complete five-year spells of low-to-no snow by the late 2040s, according to researchers.
"Therefore, if global emissions continue unabated, there is [about] 35 [to] 60 years before low-to-no becomes persistent across the western US," the authors conclude.
