A new study published in the journal PLOS One forecasts how growing conditions for three popular foods-coffee, cashews, and avocados-will evolve over the next 30 years.
Coffee will be the hardest damaged of the three crops by warming, with the study model predicting an overall reduction in the number of regions where it might grow by 2050.
Brazil, the world's top coffee producer, will see its most suitable coffee-growing land decrease by 79%.
Coffee is by far the most important, with revenue predicted to reach $460 billion (£344 billion) in 2022, while avocado and cashew are worth $13 billion and $6 billion, respectively. While coffee is mostly used as a stimulant, avocados, and cashews are popular food crops that are high in monounsaturated plant oils and other nutrients.
The key takeaway of the study is that expected climate changes are likely to result in large reductions in the quantity of land suitable for cultivating these crops in some of the most important places where they are currently grown. As a result, growers and consumers all over the world may be affected.
This study builds on previous research that has shown that climate change will have a negative impact on coffee beans. It provides more evidence of decrease by examining a broader range of parameters, such as how soil PH and texture may alter with increased rainfall. It is also the first global examination of how climate change may influence cashew and avocado growing regions.
"Certainly it's possible to adapt in many places" to compensate for shifting conditions, study author Roman Grüter said, an environmental scientist at the University of Zurich in Switzerland.
Crossbreeding specific crops to develop hardier characteristics that can better withstand climate change is already being tested by scientists and farmers.
In certain areas, such as Georgia and Sicily, completely new crop varieties are being planted. However, the study warns that this may not be enough.
"At some point, it might not be possible for a crop to grow anymore" in its traditional region, Grüter pointed out.
According to the study, food growers will need to adapt in a variety of ways, from planting cover crops to keep soil healthy to developing more climate-hardy types, such as coffee that can endure higher temperatures, to assist communities weather this transition.
However, regardless of mitigating measures implemented, it appears likely that many tropical crops will become scarcer and thus more expensive in the future.
In the case of coffee, it may even go from a low-cost everyday beverage to a valued delicacy to be enjoyed only on special occasions.
