Roughly one in three American adolescents now have prediabetes, according to a new estimate released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, raising concerns not only about youth health but also about the transparency of federal public health data under the Trump administration.
The CDC reported that about 8.4 million U.S. teens between ages 12 and 17 - or 33% - had prediabetes in 2023, a sharp increase from the 18% figure published in a peer-reviewed study in 2020. The new figure stems from an updated analytical method applied to data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, a long-standing federal program involving lab tests, interviews, and health screenings.
"These new data highlight the magnitude of prediabetes among adolescents and serve as a critical wake-up call for the nation," said CDC spokesperson Melissa Dibble in a statement, adding that the agency used "the latest science and technologies" to reflect evolving research methods.
But experts in diabetes and epidemiology are questioning the agency's approach. The estimate was posted as a brief 600-word online summary, not in a peer-reviewed journal or the CDC's traditional Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. No raw data or detailed statistical explanation accompanied the update.
"For any of the national health organizations now being decimated by firings [and] layoffs, I am going to be skeptical of data updates until there is transparency and clarity on the source of the data and analysis," said Christopher Gardner, a nutrition and diabetes expert at Stanford University.
The CDC clarified that if the updated method were applied to the older 2005-2016 data set used in the 2020 paper, the estimate would have been closer to 28%, not 18%. That suggests the jump to 33% may not indicate a massive real-world increase but rather a shift due to methodological changes. Still, critics say the agency should have disclosed more.
"I would like to believe it doesn't diminish the quality of CDC data," said Steven Kahn, editor of Diabetes Care and a researcher at UW Medicine. "However, because there's no raw data to look at, none of us can look at it to better understand where these numbers are derived from and what they really mean."
Prediabetes, a condition marked by elevated blood sugar levels not high enough to qualify as diabetes, significantly increases the risk of developing Type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and stroke. Adolescents with prediabetes may normalize their glucose levels post-puberty, but many do not.
"It's still a call to action," said Dr. Samar Hafida, an endocrinologist and spokesperson for the American Diabetes Association. "There will likely be a surge in early onset Type 2 diabetes that we are not prepared to deal with."
Dr. Dana Dabelea, a pediatric diabetes researcher at the University of Colorado, noted that some teens may see their blood sugar stabilize naturally after puberty. However, rising obesity rates and continued trends in childhood metabolic disease suggest that many will not.
"It could be that maybe the number [is] slightly inflated, but I would hesitate to dismiss it," Hafida said, acknowledging concerns around transparency while affirming that the trend matches clinical observations.
