China appears determined to use force in Taiwan, with Russia's experience in Ukraine influencing Beijing's calculations on how, rather than whether, to invade, according to the CIA's director on Wednesday.
During a speech at the Aspen Security Forum, Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns dismissed speculation that Chinese President Xi Jinping might move on Taiwan following a key Communist Party meeting later this year.
"The risks of that become higher, it seems to us, the further into this decade that you get," Mr. Burns said. Moreover, he said that China was "uneasy" about Russia's five-month-old war in Ukraine, calling it a "strategic failure" for President Vladimir Putin who had wanted to topple the Kyiv administration within a week.
"Our sense is that it probably affects less the question of whether the Chinese leadership might choose some years down the road to use force to control Taiwan, but how and when they would do it," Mr. Burns said.
He claimed that China is thought to have learned from the Ukrainian conflict that "you don't achieve quick, decisive victories with underwhelming force."
"I suspect the lesson that the Chinese leadership and military are drawing is that you've got to amass overwhelming force if you're going to contemplate that in the future," he said.
China also has likely learned that it has to "control the information space" and "do everything you can to shore up your economy against the potential for sanctions," he added.
Mr. Burns stated that despite rhetorical support, the United States does not believe Beijing is providing military help to Russia. This is consistent with earlier U.S. assessments.
He claimed that China has increased its purchases of Russian energy but is being cautious to avoid coming under Western sanctions.
Also on Wednesday, President Joe Biden stated that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is now "not a good idea" in the opinion of American military personnel.
In a conversation with reporters, Mr. Biden made his remarks a day after the Chinese Foreign Ministry threatened to take "resolute and strong actions" if Ms. Pelosi went ahead with her rumored intentions to travel to Taiwan in the coming weeks.
Ms. Pelosi had been slated to travel to Taiwan in April, but she had to reschedule after discovering she had COVID-19. She would be the highest-ranking American lawmaker to visit the close ally since Republican Newt Gingrich went there while he was House speaker 25 years ago.
