Recently leaked US documents reveal that Russia's security apparatus is experiencing internal discord, with the defense ministry being accused of underreporting casualties sustained in the war in Ukraine. While Russia has said very little about the scale of its war deaths, the files show that the FSB security service alleged that the defense ministry failed to account for deaths of the Russian National Guard, Wagner mercenaries, and others.
Although Russia has already cautioned that the leaks might be fake and deliberately released by the US, the details confirm what was already widely suspected: that Russia's military and security groups have frequently disagreed about the war in Ukraine and that Russia has refrained from publicizing the number of dead and wounded. The FSB's estimated count of nearly 110,000 casualties by February is still significantly lower than the numbers leaked in US documents earlier this week, which placed Russian losses between 189,500 and 223,000 casualties, with 35,500-43,000 men killed in action.
According to the same document, the underreporting of casualties within the system underscores the military's ongoing reluctance to relay negative news up the chain of command. Many have speculated that President Vladimir Putin has been insulated from the full extent of Russia's battlefield losses, and these communication intercepts appear to support that assessment.
Another leaked top-secret document refers to an "information war" between the defense ministry and Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin in February. Prigozhin accused the military of withholding ammunition supplies as his forces fought to capture Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine. The leak states that ministry officials suggested finding "allies of equal status to fight Prigozhin rather than doing so itself."
Significantly, the leaked assessment indicates that significant losses suffered by Russia's National Guard, or Rosgvardia, will "probably hinder Moscow's attempts to fully secure all of its annexed territories." Rosgvardia troops have participated in combat and assisted in organizing Russia's rigged referendums, which led to Putin annexing four Ukrainian regions in September.
Little is known about the identity of the leaker, but the Washington Post reported that he is a gun enthusiast in his 20s who worked at a US military base. The Post noted that the leaker transcribed and typed up the content of classified documents he saw on the base before posting photos of the documents themselves.
