For months, Arsenal's upcoming visit to Manchester City on Wednesday has been highlighted as a potentially crucial moment in the Premier League title race. However, Arsenal must now recover from a significant shift in momentum favoring the defending champions.
Despite being five points ahead at the top of the table, Mikel Arteta's team faces an uphill battle, as City has two games in hand and home advantage this week, leading many to view the title as City's to lose.
Arsenal could have established an 11-point lead recently to pressure City, who are striving for a treble of Premier League, Champions League, and FA Cup titles. But Arteta's inexperienced squad has shown their vulnerability in managing a title race during the final stretch, as three consecutive draws have handed City control of their fate.
Arsenal twice surrendered 2-0 leads, drawing against Liverpool and West Ham. On Friday, the league leaders staged a late comeback from a 3-1 deficit to draw 3-3 against Southampton.
The reaction at the final whistle at the Emirates, with Arteta visibly disappointed and Arsenal players lying on the ground, demonstrated that even rescuing a point felt like a loss against a team at the bottom of the table.
Arsenal's key issue in all three matches has been their defensive struggles.
The absence of William Saliba due to a back injury has been a significant setback, and he is not expected to return in time for Wednesday's game. Saliba had been a constant presence in the Premier League before sustaining the injury during a Europa League match against Sporting Lisbon in mid-March.
Since then, Arsenal's goals conceded and significant chances allowed to opponents have doubled compared to the first 27 matches Saliba started.
Arteta said after the Southampton match, "We have to look in the mirror because we gave three really easy goals away and when you do that, it's extremely difficult to win in this league."
He added, "The confidence is there; it's those moments that we need to cut back. At this level, we cannot give away the goals that we have given. It's as simple as that."
Displaying any vulnerability against Pep Guardiola's team in a title race is likely to be costly, and Arsenal can't afford another weak defensive performance against City's potent attack.
The defending champions have won all 11 home games in 2023, scoring 43 goals. Erling Haaland is just two goals shy of the all-time Premier League record of 34 goals in a season and has 50 in all competitions during his first year in English football.
Even when Haaland didn't score in Saturday's 3-0 victory over Sheffield United, Riyad Mahrez delivered the first FA Cup semi-final hat-trick since 1958.
Despite City's attacking depth, Mahrez is expected to return to the bench, with Jack Grealish, Kevin De Bruyne, and Bernardo Silva supporting Haaland upfront.
Haaland's arrival led to Gabriel Jesus' departure from City, where he won four Premier League titles in the past five years. The Brazilian, one of the few Arsenal players with trophy-winning experience, has called for his team to regroup for the season's most important game.
"We have to manage ourselves to come back and be focused again and strong because anything can happen from now until the end of the season," said Jesus. "Each game is a final, we have to face them like a final. This is the most important game of the season for us."
