Satellite imagery from Capella Space reveals extensive Russian fortifications in preparation for a significant Ukrainian counteroffensive. Spanning from western Russia through eastern Ukraine to Crimea, these defensive measures consist of anti-tank ditches, "dragon's teeth" barricades, and defensive trenches where Russian troops will be stationed.
Reuters analyzed satellite images displaying thousands of defensive positions within Russia and along Ukrainian frontlines. These positions are particularly concentrated in the southern Zaporizhzhia region and the entrance to the Crimean Peninsula. Military experts suggest that Ukraine's ability to perform complex, combined operations will be crucial in overcoming these fortifications.
Neil Melvin, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), stated, "It's not the numbers for the Ukrainians. It's can they do this kind of warfare, combined arms operations?" He added that Russia has reverted to a Soviet method of attrition, which may hinder their defense capabilities.
Ukraine is working to reclaim the land occupied by Russia, roughly the size of Bulgaria, and regain unimpeded access to its Black Sea export routes. The country is under pressure to retake as much territory as possible before military support from the West wanes.
Russian defensive efforts have increased since November, particularly after its forces withdrew from Kherson city. These fortifications indicate the areas Russia expects to be attacked or where it considers holding onto territory strategically significant.
Six military experts predict that the primary focus of a counteroffensive will be in the south, where the heaviest fighting has recently occurred. Oleksandr Musiyenko, a military analyst in Kyiv, emphasized the strategic importance of the south for Ukraine. In addition to disrupting the land corridor from Russia to occupied Crimea, advancing in the south could put the peninsula within artillery range.
Capella Space's satellite images depict the town of Polohy in the Zaporizhzhia region, a critical gateway for Ukraine to make headway in the largely flat south. The remainder of the south lies beyond the Dnipro River, a significant natural barrier for Ukrainian forces.
Military experts suggest that despite the extensive defensive measures, Russia may struggle to defend the length of the front. Ukraine could capitalize on this vulnerability by employing feints, distractions, surprise, and operational speed.
Musiyenko estimated that Ukraine would have a force of between 100,000-110,000 for an attack. Meanwhile, Russia has not disclosed the number of troops it has in Ukraine or within its borders ready to deploy.
