Over two months have passed since the May Lower House elections in Thailand, Southeast Asia's second-largest economy, and the Prime Ministerial decision has been delayed once more, altering the political alliance's composition.
On August 3, the Lower House Speaker, Wan Muhammad Noor, announced the postponement of the Prime Ministerial vote initially set for this Friday, with a new voting date yet to be determined. Consequently, Thailand's political deadlock seems set to continue.
Following the announcement, the Thai baht plummeted by 1.1% against the U.S. dollar, marking the largest drop among Asian currencies. On Thursday morning, Thailand's main stock index fell 0.7%, and over THB 100 billion ($29 billion) in foreign funds has been withdrawn from the Thai stock market in the first half of this year.
Just a day before the election postponement announcement, the Pheu Thai Party, closely linked with ex-Prime Minister Thaksin and the runner-up in the Lower House election, declared its exclusion of the Move Forward Party from the coalition alliance, setting up a new alliance.
The Move Forward Party, which won the most seats in the Lower House elections, had formed an eight-party coalition with the Pheu Thai Party, and Move Forward Party leader Pita became the coalition's Prime Ministerial candidate. Due to dissatisfaction from the military-controlled Upper House, Pita was unable to pass the parliament's Prime Ministerial vote and had his candidacy revoked.
After being left out of the alliance, the Pheu Thai Party launched its own Prime Ministerial candidate - Thaksin's old friend and real estate mogul Sretat. Seeing the increased chances of the Pheu Thai Party's victory, Thaksin, who has been exiled overseas for 15 years, plans to return to Thailand next week.
Election Postponed, Move Forward Party Excluded
According to the Bangkok Post on Thursday, Speaker Wan Muhammad Noor explained that the decision to delay Friday's Prime Ministerial vote was due to the Constitutional Court's pending judgment regarding Pita's removal as a Prime Ministerial candidate.
At the end of July, the Secretary-General of Thailand's Commission of Inquiry applied to the Constitutional Court, pointing out that after Pita's candidacy was cancelled by the parliament, 17 appeals were filed by the general public and parliamentarians accusing the parliament of violating citizens' rights granted by the constitution. The Commission of Inquiry requested that the Constitutional Court postpone the parliament's Prime Ministerial voting until a decision was made on the relevant appeals.
On Thursday morning, the Constitutional Court announced that staff needed to carefully study the content of the appeals and would make a ruling on August 16. This means that the next round of parliament's voting on the Prime Ministerial candidate will occur after the 16th.
Pita participated in the parliamentary vote twice but failed to gain support from the Upper House. He was also temporarily suspended from his parliamentarian qualifications for still holding shares in a media company during the parliamentary elections. He is currently under investigation by the Election Commission. However, being temporarily suspended does not prevent Pita from being a Prime Ministerial candidate.
In addition, the Constitutional Court is handling another lawsuit wherein the Move Forward Party and Pita are accused of trying to overthrow the Thai monarchy by abolishing the offense of Lese-Majeste. If found guilty, the Move Forward Party would be completely dissolved, and some members would lose their parliamentary seats.
The offense of Lese-Majeste refers to Section 112 of the Thai Penal Code, which stipulates that anyone who defames, insults, or assaults the king, queen, or their progeny will be sentenced to 3 to 15 years in prison.
Abolishing the offense of Lese-Majeste is one of the key demands of the Move Forward Party, but traditional political parties, including the Pheu Thai Party, refuse to undermine the monarchy's status. The Move Forward Party, which has the support of young urban voters, also advocates for amending the constitution and limiting military power.
When Pita was first rejected by the parliament, Thai media speculated that the Pheu Thai Party would leave the Move Forward Party to establish a new alliance.
On Wednesday morning, leaders of the Pheu Thai Party and the Move Forward Party held negotiations. In the afternoon, Pheu Thai Party leader Cholnan Srikaew announced that due to the Move Forward Party's unwillingness to compromise on the issue of Lese-Majeste and the strong dissatisfaction from other members of the eight-party coalition, the Pheu Thai Party would establish a new alliance without the Move Forward Party.
Chaithawat Tulathon, Secretary-General of the Move Forward Party, argued that the Pheu Thai Party had not demanded a compromise on the Lese-Majeste issue during the negotiations. He claimed that Lese-Majeste was merely an excuse, and the real reason for excluding the Move Forward Party was that the old powers did not want to see a government led by the Move Forward Party.
The Move Forward Party will continue to promote its agenda as an opposition party in parliament.
Pheu Thai Party Proposes Prime Ministerial Candidate, Thaksin Plans Return
In the Lower House elections in May, the Move Forward Party won 151 seats, ranking first, the Pheu Thai Party 141 seats, coming second, and the eight-party coalition occupied 312 seats in the 500-seat Lower House. The Upper House has a total of 250 seats, most of which are appointed by the military. To become Prime Minister, more than half of the 750 members of both houses need to give their support.
After the Move Forward Party was excluded from the alliance, the Pheu Thai Party quickly formed a new coalition with seven smaller parties, occupying 282 seats in the Lower House. They launched a new Prime Ministerial candidate, Sretat, who is the founder and chairman of the property developer Raimon Land. He has a deep relationship with Thaksin and his sister, former Prime Minister Yingluck, and is expected to have a greater chance of winning support from the military-controlled Upper House than Pita.
Despite his close relationship with Thaksin, Sretat has never held any political office before. However, he has made a name for himself in the business world, having led Raimon Land to become one of Thailand's largest luxury real estate developers.
According to a Pheu Thai Party official, the new seven-party alliance believes that Sretat's candidacy will not face the same obstacles as Pita's since he has a good relationship with the military. His vast wealth and business reputation are also expected to provide confidence to foreign investors who are concerned about the political instability in Thailand.
Additionally, the return of Thaksin, the influential figure in the Pheu Thai Party, is anticipated to change the political landscape. In 2008, Thaksin was sentenced to two years in prison on corruption charges and has been living in exile overseas. However, he continues to wield significant influence in Thai politics through his connection with the Pheu Thai Party and his vast network of supporters, especially in the rural northern parts of Thailand.
Recently, Thaksin has expressed his intention to return to Thailand, and it is reported that he plans to do so next week. He has told the media that he misses his home country and that he wants to help Thailand restore its economy amidst the political turmoil.
His return, however, may not be without controversy. It remains to be seen how Thaksin will navigate the political situation and his legal challenges, considering the high-profile corruption charges he faces. Moreover, the monarchy, the military, and certain segments of the Thai society remain staunchly opposed to Thaksin due to his divisive politics and alleged abuses of power.
Regardless, Thaksin's return and the shifting alliances in Thai politics will continue to shape the country's political landscape in the coming months. The Thai populace, weary of the political uncertainty, hopes that a resolution to the Prime Ministerial decision will bring stability and kickstart the economy. The world watches with bated breath as the political chess game in Thailand continues to unfold.
