More than a week after the abrupt coup in the West African nation of Niger, the military leaders who led the coup announced on the evening of August 3 that they were nullifying their defense agreement with former colonial power France.
Following Mali, the Central African Republic, and Burkina Faso, Niger had been a key military stronghold for France in the Sahel region (the area between the Sahara desert and Sudanese savannas), hosting around 1,500 French soldiers.
When the coup leaders announced the severing of military cooperation with France, they also cut off signals to the France 24 television station and Radio France Internationale. On the same day, thousands of coup supporters held large-scale rallies, brandishing anti-French slogans and waving Russian flags.
August 3rd also marked Niger's Independence Day. On August 3, 1960, Niger declared its full independence from French colonial rule and left the "French Community."
France once held sway over 20 African colonies, with nine located in the West African region where Niger lies. Even after these colonies gained independence, France retained influence over its former territories through economic, financial, and military means, while also exploiting local oil and gas mineral resources.
However, as the security situation in parts of Africa has worsened in recent years, along with economic stagnation and increased foreign investment from other countries, France's influence has gradually declined. In West Africa, three countries-Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea-have experienced military coups in the past three years, with Niger being the fourth. All four are former French colonies.
At the insistent requests of Mali and Burkina Faso, France has withdrawn troops from both countries. Mali and the Central African Republic, another former French colony, have begun to turn to the Russian mercenary group Wagner for security. Burkina Faso is also in talks with Wagner. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union established cooperative relationships with many African countries. In the past decade, Russia has become Africa's largest source of weaponry.
Whether Niger will follow Mali and others in fully aligning with Russia is a major concern for Western nations. But besides being a stronghold for the French military, Niger is also an important base for U.S. forces.
Although anti-French sentiment is high in Niger, the country's military leaders continue to communicate with U.S. forces. The U.S. has 1,100 soldiers stationed in Niger and has invested $100 million over several years to build a drone base in central Niger, which only became operational in 2019.
The U.S. has made it clear that it intends to maintain a presence in Niger.
Although the U.S. has announced the withdrawal of some non-essential embassy staff, its embassy in Niger remains open. The detained democratically elected President of Niger, Bazoum, called for U.S. assistance in an article in U.S. media on Thursday. As of now, U.S. officials still refuse to classify the upheaval in Niger as a "coup."
Niger and France
After the coup leaders in Niger announced the abolition of the military agreement with France, the French General Staff emphasized in media interviews that France does not recognize any authority in Niger other than Bazoum. This effectively means that France does not accept the coup leaders' nullification of the defense agreement.
The French Foreign Ministry also responded on Friday that the defense agreement with Niger was signed with a "legitimate" government of Niger, and only a legitimate government has the authority to cancel it.
France currently has 5,650 soldiers stationed in Africa, with nearly 1,500 each in Djibouti and Niger, making them the countries with the most French troops.
In 2010, after five French nationals were kidnapped in Niger by Al-Qaeda, the Nigerien government allowed French troops to be stationed there. France set up an air force base in the capital Niamey, deploying fighter jets and drones responsible for combating branches of the Islamic State (ISIS) and Al-Qaeda in Niger and other countries.
However, the Global Terrorism Index report published last year by the independent think tank Institute for Economics and Peace showed that Niger ranked eighth in 2021 in terms of terrorism. That year, Niger saw the largest increase in the number of deaths due to terrorist attacks globally, with a 129% rise to 588 deaths compared to the previous year.
The security situation in the entire Sahel region has notably worsened. Six of the ten countries in Sub-Saharan Africa most affected by terrorism are Sahel countries, including Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso.
Niger is rich in uranium resources and was the EU's second-largest uranium supplier last year. France, heavily dependent on nuclear energy, received most of its uranium from Niger, which ranked as France's third-largest uranium supplier from 2005 to 2020.
According to official data from Niger, mineral exports, including uranium and gold, account for 40% of the country's exports, contributing 3% to its GDP. More than 30 French companies operate in Niger, including energy giant Total, nuclear power titan Orano, and construction behemoth Vinci's subsidiary Sogea-Satom.
However, Niger's resource development has not improved the living conditions of its citizens. Niger remains one of the world's least developed countries as designated by the United Nations, and 40% of the government budget comes from external aid. According to World Bank statistics, agriculture still contributes 40% to the country's GDP, and in 2021, over 10 million people in Niger lived in extreme poverty, accounting for 41.8% of the country's population.
France also maintains economic influence and even control over Niger, most notably through monetary policy. During the colonial era, France introduced the CFA franc in Africa. There are two kinds of CFA franc, one for the West African Economic and Monetary Union, and another for the Central African Economic and Monetary Community.
Including Niger, 14 countries in West and Central Africa still use the CFA franc, which is pegged to the euro, significantly weakening these countries' monetary policy autonomy. Furthermore, countries using the CFA franc must hold 50% of their foreign exchange reserves in the French Treasury.
This monetary policy has long been seen as a continuation of French colonial policy and is criticized by African countries. In 2019, Italian officials accused the French CFA franc as a significant cause of poverty in African countries. These accusations triggered a new wave of protests in Africa, with protesters in Senegal publicly burning 5,000 CFA francs.
In response to international pressure, France finally reformed the CFA franc system in 2020. It no longer required West African countries using the CFA franc to hold 50% of their foreign exchange reserves in the French Treasury, but the CFA franc remains pegged to the euro. The West African Economic and Monetary Union has planned to introduce a unified currency in 2027.
Although the current coup in Niger is not related to France, the long-term involvement of France in Niger's affairs and the persistent lack of improvement in Niger's security and poverty issues have led to a long-standing resentment among the public towards France. During the diversion of conflict focus, anti-French sentiment became the best leverage for the coup military.
Leaning Towards Russia?
After the coup in Niger, the leader of the Wagner Group, Prigozhin, released an audio on social media, claiming that the coup in Niger was a struggle between the people of Niger and "colonists". He accused the colonists of trying to impose their rules on African countries, with the intention of keeping African countries unable to move forward and remaining in the state they were in hundreds of years ago.
The spokesperson for the Russian president, Peskov, urged all parties in Niger to remain calm and to restore Niger's legal order as soon as possible. US officials told the media that there was no evidence that Russia or Wagner was involved in the coup in Niger, but they were worried that this incident could provide an opportunity for Russia to intervene in Niger.
On Wednesday, Salifou Modi, the chief of staff of the army involved in the coup, led a delegation to visit Mali. Both Mali and Burkina Faso's military governments have issued statements in support of the coup in Niger, and both countries warned that if the Economic Community of West African States militarily intervenes in Niger, it will be seen as a declaration of war against the two countries. After Mali and Burkina Faso voiced their support, Guinea also announced its support for the coup in Niger.
At present, the Wagner Group has 1500 members in Mali, responsible for training soldiers in the country. Although Modi did not meet with Wagner members in Mali, Western media suspect that the Niger military is trying to establish contact with Wagner.
Russia has been expanding its footprint in Africa in recent years. A report released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in March this year showed that from 2018 to 2022, Russia was the largest supplier of weapons to Africa, with 40% of Africa's imported weapons coming from Russia. The second largest was the United States (16%), while France only accounted for 7.6%.
After the cessation of the Black Sea grain transport channel, Russia is also interested in replacing Ukraine's position in Africa. At the Russian-African summit at the end of last month, Russia promised to transport 50,000 tons of grain to six African countries including Mali and the Central African Republic for free.
But the external forces that can affect Niger are not only France and Russia. Niger is also an important base for the U.S. military in Africa. The detained President Bazoum of Niger is one of the few remaining pro-Western leaders in the Sahel region, and Niger is also considered by the United States to be the "best partner" in the region.
The U.S. military has two bases in Niger, one is the "101 Air Force Base" located in the capital Niamey, and the other is the "201 Air Force Base" located in Agadez in central Niger. The latter cost over $100 million to build. Due to its location in a remote desert and harsh construction conditions, the U.S. Air Force has called it the most labor-intensive air base in history. The United States has made huge investments in the "201 Air Force Base". The base was originally planned to be completed in 2016, but it was not completed and put into use until 2019.
Niger is the country with the second highest number of U.S. troops stationed in Africa, second only to the 4,000 stationed in Djibouti. The U.S. military stationed in Niger is mainly responsible for conducting reconnaissance and intelligence collection operations in Niger, Chad, Cameroon, and Nigeria, while also training Niger's national soldiers.
Unlike France, the United States and Niger do not have the historical entanglements of former colonial countries and colonies. There are no anti-American slogans in the current demonstrations in Niger. After the coup in Niger, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, also had a call with senior military officials in Niger.
In an interview with CNN, U.S. military officials revealed that the Pentagon's current assessment of the situation in Niger is still uncertain and there are many variables. The United States is adopting a wait-and-see strategy and has no plans to withdraw troops. Until now, the U.S. official has still not classified the change in Niger as a "coup".
When Sudan had internal disturbances in April this year, U.S. embassy staff were the fastest foreign missions to evacuate Sudan. However, after the coup in Niger, the United States only withdrew non-essential staff from the embassy, and the embassy is still open as usual.
Another uncertainty of the coup in Niger is that the detained President Bazoum has not resigned, nor has his personal freedom been strictly restricted. He continues to call with foreign leaders such as U.S. Secretary of State Blinken and French President Macron, and he can even publish articles in U.S. media.
Last Sunday, President Déby of Chad met with Bazoum in Niger and posted photos of their meeting on Twitter.
On Thursday, The Washington Post published an article by Bazoum. Bazoum listed the economic and security progress Niger has made in recent years, calling Niger the "last bastion of respect for human rights" in the Sahel region, and appealed to the U.S. government and the international community for help. He sounded an alarm to Americans: If the coup makers in Niger come to power, the entire central Sahel region will become Russia's territory.
