On Aug 6, Saudi Arabia concluded its hosted talks on the Ukraine issue. Representatives from 42 countries, including China, India, the U.S., and Europe, participated both online and in person in this two-day summit held in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia's second-largest city. Notably, Russia, a primary party involved in the conflict, was excluded from the talks.
While these discussions were informal, meaning no joint statement was released, Saudi Arabia did declare that participating nations had agreed to future talks aiming to establish peace.
The Chief of Staff to the Ukrainian President, Yermak, found the discussions to be productive. However, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister, Ryabkov, characterized them as an attempt to sway countries from the global south and deemed it "doomed to fail." Russia went on to state that discussions about the Ukraine issue without considering Russia's interests are "worthless." Nonetheless, they expressed a willingness to entertain "serious and earnest proposals."
Brazil stressed the importance of Russia's involvement. Brazilian foreign policy adviser Celso Amorim commented that even though Ukraine is the major victim, achieving peace necessitates Moscow's involvement. All genuine negotiations must be inclusive of all parties.
China's involvement, in particular, garnered attention from Western media. Some believe it signifies a significant breakthrough or hints at China's changing stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Yet, others speculate that it primarily reflects China's close ties with the host nation, Saudi Arabia.
Summit Outcomes: Closing the Gap?
Owing to the "sensitive nature" of the topic, the Jeddah summit was not open to the media. However, sources cited by Bloomberg indicate the most tangible outcome was the formation of a working group focused on [Ukrainian President] Zelensky's "Ten Point Peace Plan." Another group, comprised of ambassadors, will persist in technical deliberations on these matters.
Last year, President Zelensky of Ukraine introduced his "Ten Point Peace Plan," which entailed proposals like restoring Ukraine's territorial integrity, Russian troop withdrawal, releasing prisoners, ensuring food supplies, nuclear security, and humanitarian aid. Russia has since rejected this proposal.
Zelensky hopes to host a global summit on this peace plan by the fall. Ukraine views the Jeddah summit as a substantial first step toward that goal. While the exact date for the global summit remains undecided, it's plausible before the year's end.
This peace proposal was initially discussed in June, with representatives from over a dozen nations gathering in Copenhagen. Many diplomats in attendance felt that the divide evident in the Copenhagen discussions appeared to be narrowing at the Jeddah talks.
In reality, Ukraine didn't anticipate any definitive outcomes from the Jeddah talks. A commentary in the Kyiv Post emphasized the success in bringing together influential members from the BRICS nations, excluding Russia - Brazil, India, China, and South Africa - especially considering their varied ties with Russia.
The Russo-Ukrainian conflict has raged for 18 months, with front-line battles ongoing and direct peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow still appearing elusive. While Ukraine enjoys extensive support from Western nations, many countries remain reluctant to take sides.
Saudi Ambition: Emerging as a Mediator
China's participation, described as a "super breakthrough" by Ukraine's Foreign Minister Kuleba, has undoubtedly captured international attention.
Western media highlighted that although China was invited to the Copenhagen talks in June, they declined. Yet, prior to the start of the Jeddah conference on August 4, China announced that its Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs, Li Hui, would attend, expressing China's intent to play a constructive role in resolving the Ukraine crisis.
An EU insider relayed to The Guardian that China had been "actively participating in the Jeddah talks and seemed enthusiastic about future high-level meetings of this nature." Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told Deutsche Welle that China's participation was "significant," indicating a cautious approach to overtly supporting Moscow in this conflict.
However, some analysts argue that expecting a major shift in China's stance might be unrealistic. China's willingness to attend may be more about its close ties with Saudi Arabia than any geopolitical shift.
Saudi Arabia's role in ensuring China's participation cannot be overlooked. Alicja Bachulska, a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, suggests that China's participation doesn't necessarily signify a change in stance on the conflict, but it does reinforce a responsible and neutral image - a win-win for China.
Ukraine's choice of Saudi Arabia as the host reflects their strategic thinking. Maintaining neutrality in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, Saudi Arabia positions itself as a potential mediator.
The world's largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, enjoys close ties with Russia on oil matters while also extending financial aid to Ukraine. In a summit held in Saudi Arabia last May, Zelensky was invited to speak. Last year, Saudi Arabia played a mediating role in a prisoner exchange between Ukraine and Russia.
Under the leadership of Crown Prince Salman, Saudi Arabia aims to assert a more prominent role on the global stage, seeking to expand relationships beyond traditional ties with the U.S. Their bond with China is growing stronger. With China's encouragement, Saudi Arabia reestablished ties with its regional adversary, Iran, earlier this year, leading to a reconciliation trend in the Middle East.
The Jeddah summit underscores Saudi Arabia's aspirations on the world stage. Bader Al-Saif, an assistant professor of history at Kuwait University, remarked that hosting the Ukraine talks unveiled a rejuvenated Saudi image on the international front.
