PHNOM PENH, Cambodia - Cambodia's ruling party, the People's Party, clinched an overwhelming victory in the National Assembly (lower house) elections at the end of July. After 38 years at the helm, Prime Minister Hun Sen announced that he would no longer lead the new government. His eldest son, 45-year-old Hun Manet, was appointed as the People's Party's prime ministerial candidate.
On August 7, Cambodian King Sihamoni issued a royal decree, appointing Hun Manet as the prime minister of the new government. The new National Assembly is scheduled to vote on the new cabinet on the 22nd, and Hun Manet will officially assume the role of prime minister after the vote. This marks the first time since 1985 that Cambodia has changed its prime minister.
Hun Manet's appointment symbolizes a generational shift in Cambodian leadership. The leaked cabinet list shows that the sons of Cambodia's current interior and defense ministers will succeed their fathers, with most cabinet positions being filled by younger individuals.
Given that Hun Manet and several senior officials' children have Western educational backgrounds, foreign media began to pay attention to whether Cambodia's new government would improve relations with the West.
Meanwhile, Hun Sen has made it clear that although he will no longer serve as prime minister, he will continue to be involved in politics until 2033 to ensure national stability.
Second Generation Takes the Helm
According to the cabinet list obtained by the Asia Times, many children of current senior officials will be part of Hun Manet's new cabinet.
The son of the Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister, current Secretary of State for Education Sar Sokha, will become the Interior Minister. Tea Seiha, 42, Governor of Siem Reap Province, will succeed his father as Defense Minister.
Cham Nimol, the daughter of the former Commerce Minister and current Secretary of State for Commerce, will become Commerce Minister. Eang Sophalleth, son-in-law of the Minister of Land, Urban Planning, and Construction, will become Environment Minister. Hun Sen's second son, 40-year-old Hun Many, will become the Civil Service Minister.
Among the 30 cabinet positions, 23 will be filled by newcomers, with only the Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, 57-year-old Aun Porn Moniroth, being one of the few senior officials to retain his position. Nine out of the current 10 Deputy Prime Ministers will retire, with the exception of Aun Porn Moniroth.
Last week, Hun Sen explained that his decision not to continue as prime minister was due to Cambodia's current stable domestic situation and the readiness of the next generation. He announced that he would not interfere with the new government's decisions but warned that he would immediately take control again if Hun Manet's life was in danger.
Although he will no longer be prime minister, Hun Sen is not planning to leave politics. He will continue to serve as the party leader of the People's Party and may become the Senate President early next year. On Monday, just after his 71st birthday, Hun Sen explicitly stated on social media that he will continue to serve in various positions until 2033.
Improving Relations with the West?
Cambodia is a traditional agricultural country whose economic development largely depends on foreign capital. The United States and the European Union are important export markets for Cambodia, with the U.S. consistently ranking first, accounting for 40% of Cambodia's exports.
However, since Cambodia dissolved its largest opposition party in 2017, the Cambodia National Rescue Party, and the U.S. restricted aid and imposed sanctions, relations between the two countries have continued to deteriorate. Hun Sen has also frequently criticized the U.S. for overreach.
In response to Cambodia's National Assembly elections last month, the U.S. took further action, citing unfair elections as a reason to ban visas for some officials and suspend some aid programs.
But the rise of Hun Manet and a new generation of cabinet members also shows the possibility of a turnaround in relations with the United States. With a rich Western educational background, including a master's degree in economics from New York University and a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Bristol, Hun Manet may present a new opportunity.
Apart from Hun Manet, several other potential Cambodian officials have Western educational backgrounds. Potential Defense Minister Tea Seiha studied economics in France and attended the famous French military academy Saint-Cyr.
On Monday, Hun Manet announced on social media that the new government will formulate five strategic goals, including maintaining national stability, achieving economic growth, and continuing to pursue independent foreign policies to build good friendships and cooperation with countries around the world.
Reuters cited informed sources reporting that Hun Manet might meet with senior U.S. business leaders in New York during the United Nations General Assembly in September to discuss U.S. investment in Cambodia. The U.S. State Department declined to comment on whether U.S. officials would meet with Hun Manet during the UN assembly.
Insiders have pointed out that Sok Chenda Sophea, who is likely to serve as the new Foreign Minister of Cambodia, is looking to shift the focus of the Foreign Ministry from current geopolitical issues to fostering economic growth. Sok Chenda Sophea currently serves as the Secretary-General of the Cambodian Development Council.
An editorial published in The Washington Post believes that Hun Manet and his new cabinet might moderate Cambodia's anti-Western stance. However, the extent to which they can pivot depends on how much real power Hun Manet can wield, as Hun Sen still seems to be the puppet master behind the scenes.
The editorial states that if Hun Manet is ready to mend ties with the West, reduce Cambodia's overreliance on China, address human rights issues, and allow space for opposition parties and independent media to operate freely, then the U.S. stands ready to extend a helping hand.
The Diplomat magazine believes that for any substantial improvement in Cambodia-Western relations, Western nations must adopt a "more pragmatic policy" towards Cambodia and have "more realistic expectations" of its new government. The current U.S. stance, which saw sanctions imposed on Cambodia following its elections, suggests that the U.S. government is waiting for Hun Manet's administration to take the first step - either by initiating democratic reforms or distancing itself from China.
The article notes that both of these U.S. expectations differ from Cambodia's actual situation. Therefore, even if there is a slight shift in Cambodia-West relations, it won't lead to any substantial transformation.
Charles Dunst, a guest researcher for the Southeast Asian program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, also wrote that compared to Hun Sen, Hun Manet, with his Western education and lacking any historical grievances against the U.S., might have a friendlier stance towards the West. However, he is unlikely to adjust Cambodian policy as much as the West hopes.
The article suggests that on one hand, the U.S. Congress has long been dissatisfied with Hun Sen, making it very difficult for Hun Manet to extend an olive branch to the U.S. On the other hand, for Hun Manet, who lacks political experience, to gain popularity, economic development is key. And the demands of economic growth will likely push him towards China first and foremost. China is Cambodia's largest trading partner and the biggest source of foreign investment. In 2020, the two countries formally signed the China-Cambodia Free Trade Agreement, which took effect in January of the following year.
From 1998 to 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, Cambodia's average annual economic growth rate reached 7.7%, ranking among the top globally. This year, the country's economic growth rate is expected to be 5%, the same as last year. Cambodia was upgraded from a low-income country to a lower-middle-income country in 2015. The World Bank predicts that it will join the ranks of middle-income countries by 2030.
At the end of last month, in response to congratulatory messages from China, Hun Sen clarified that Cambodia's policy towards China will not change. He reiterated Cambodia's desire to work closely with China, deepening the comprehensive strategic partnership and jointly building a high-quality, high-level, and high-standard Cambodia-China community of shared future in the new era, contributing to regional and global peace, stability, and prosperity.
