Two weeks have passed since the military upheaval in Niger, yet the political future remains uncertain in this crucial position for both U.S. and French interests in Africa.
On one hand, the coup leaders have not reinstated President Bazoum to power and have publicly voided military agreements with their former colonial ruler, France. They've also rejected meetings with delegations from the United Nations, African Union, and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Conversely, these coup leaders have engaged in talks with the U.S. State Department's second-in-command. Despite the stalled negotiations, the U.S. has yet to label the situation in Niger as a coup.
Meanwhile, the current ECOWAS chairman and Nigerian president who has experienced a coup, Tinubu, has threatened military intervention in Niger. However, this plan has faced strong opposition from the Nigerian parliament and neighboring countries like Algeria.
Amid these pressures, there are whispers that the coup leaders in Niger have been in touch with Russia's Wagner mercenary group, seeking their support.
Against a backdrop of escalating U.S.-Russia tensions and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Niger is once again at the crossroads of international power plays.
According to Al Jazeera, the UN, African Union, and ECOWAS had initially planned to send representatives to Niger on August 8th. However, the coup leaders declined their visit citing "security concerns."
Last Sunday, these leaders alleged foreign threats to Niger, subsequently closing the nation's airspace.
Since the upheaval on July 26th, democratically elected President Bazoum remains in custody. Despite his detainment, Bazoum has maintained communication with foreign leaders, including U.S. Secretary of State Blinken, and has penned articles in U.S. media.
The coup's leading figure and commander of Niger's presidential guard, Chiyani, has declared himself chairman of the "Committee for the Defense of the Homeland," effectively becoming Niger's new leader. This week, the military named former Economic and Finance Minister, Ali Mahamane Lamine Zeine, as the new Prime Minister of Niger.
These appointments have not been recognized by the U.S. or France. Both nations have significant strategic interests in Niger, with over 1,000 troops stationed there from each country. Niger is the second-largest host of U.S. and French forces in Africa. The U.S. also operates two drone bases in Niger, one costing $100 million and launched in 2019. For France, which heavily relies on nuclear power, Niger, being the world's seventh-largest uranium producer, is an invaluable source.
President Bazoum stands as one of the few remaining pro-Western leaders in the Sahel region. Countries in the region like Mali and Central African Republic have turned to Wagner for security, Burkina Faso is negotiating with Wagner, Sudan is a major Wagner stronghold in Africa, and Algeria remains a strategic partner for Russia.
In response to the coup, France, the U.S., the European Union, ECOWAS, and the World Bank have all introduced sanctions, pausing some economic aid and security cooperation with Niger. Niger, one of the world's least developed countries, relies on foreign aid for about 40% of its 2023 fiscal year government budget, which amounts to approximately $2.2 billion. Nigeria has even cut off its electricity supply to Niger, on which Niger relies for 70% of its power.
While these sanctions apply pressure, both the U.S. and France aim to safeguard their interests in Niger. Due to heightened anti-French sentiments in Niger, the U.S. has become the representative for the West in negotiations. On Monday, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Nuland visited Niger.
Though they refused meetings with international organizations like the UN and the African Union, the coup leaders in Niger held a two-hour discussion with Nuland. She proposed a return to democratic order, which the military leaders showed little interest in. The U.S. warned that without reinstating Bazoum as president, Niger might lose foreign aid.
Nuland described the negotiations as "challenging," as she couldn't meet with both the detained Bazoum and coup leader Chiyani. Even without progress in the talks, the U.S. remains hopeful about a diplomatic solution to restore Bazoum to power.
To this point, the U.S. has not officially labeled Niger's situation as a coup. If it were to do so, U.S. aid to Niger would cease, and they would have to abandon their $100 million drone base in the country.
ECOWAS had asked the Nigerien military to reinstate President Bazoum within a week or face potential measures, including military intervention. This ECOWAS ultimatum expired on the 6th, yet the organization refrained from using force.
In dealing with Niger's coup, ECOWAS chairman and Nigerian President Tinubu is seen as a hardliner. Without a military background and having experienced a coup himself while serving as a Nigerian legislator in the 1990s, Tinubu's stance is particularly notable. Additionally, this coup in Niger presents another challenge to ECOWAS, as three of its member states-Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea-have experienced coups in recent years.
However, Tinubu's plan for military intervention faced strong opposition from Nigeria's Senate. To deploy troops to Niger, he would need approval from both legislative houses. Over the weekend, Nigeria's Senate held an executive session, deciding against military intervention in Niger, opting instead for a political resolution.
Nigeria, sharing a 1,500-kilometer border with Niger to its north, is expressing concerns among its legislators. They fear that any military action against Niger would further destabilize northern Nigeria, an area already under threat from terror groups like ISIS and Boko Haram.
Algeria, bordering northwestern Niger, also strongly opposes any foreign military intervention in Niger. Algerian President Tebboune warned that any military intrusion into Niger could plunge the entire Sahel region into chaos.
On Monday, Italian Foreign Minister Di Maio called on ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) to seek a peaceful resolution to the issues in Niger. He stressed that while Niger's President Bazoum should indeed be released, it's not Italy's place to enforce this. He added that the U.S. is being very cautious about the situation, suggesting it's unlikely the U.S. would militarily intervene in Niger. Italy currently has 300 troops stationed in Niger, and the European Union has about 100 soldiers there for military training.
This Thursday, ECOWAS will convene an emergency meeting again to discuss the Niger situation. ECOWAS's stance seems to have softened recently, with its spokesperson indicating on Tuesday that both ECOWAS and Niger lean toward diplomatic and peaceful means to resolve the coup in Niger.
Amid ongoing pressure from both ECOWAS and the combined U.S. and French governments, officials from France and Mali disclosed that Niger's military coup leaders had made contact with the Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary organization, seeking its assistance during their recent visit to Mali. An anonymous Western military official told the Associated Press that the Wagner Group is considering the proposal from Niger.
On Tuesday, the leader of the Wagner Group, Prigozhin, released an audio message on social media, stating that the group supports those fighting for sovereignty and urged the Nigerien military to "call us" if they needed assistance.
The U.S. assessment believes that neither Russia nor the Wagner Group had a hand in the Niger coup. However, the Wagner Group was criticized for trying to exploit Niger's instability to increase its influence in Africa.
Currently, over 1,500 Wagner Group members are stationed in Niger's neighboring country, Mali. On July 30th, the Central African Republic is set to hold a constitutional referendum, and hundreds of Wagner personnel have been invited to handle the security for this event. At the end of last month, Prigozhin released a video welcoming Wagner members to Belarus and urged them to be ready to "begin a new journey in Africa."
