Following the recent termination of Black Sea Grain Initiative, three civilian cargo ships proceeded to Ukrainian ports without interference from Russia. However, a warning shot from a Russian warship last Sunday has disrupted Ukraine's plans to establish a "humanitarian corridor" in the Black Sea for stranded ships, leading to concerns of rising insurance costs for Black Sea shipping.
Amidst the deadlock, the U.S. and Ukraine are pinning hopes on Turkey, a NATO member with close ties to Russia. This month, Turkish President Erdogan will meet with Russian President Putin, with discussions expected to focus on reviving the grain transport agreement.
Data from the shipping analytics firm Marine Traffic, as reported by Reuters, indicates that as of August 14th, despite Russia's warning shots, at least 30 cargo ships remain anchored in the Black Sea's Musura Bay. Located near the Danube River's mouth, it allows ships easy access to Ukraine's Izmail port.
Large shipping companies had abandoned Black Sea grain operations after the agreement lapsed last month, due to safety risks and the inability of large cargo vessels to navigate the Danube River. Smaller vessels, however, have been skirting the Black Sea and entering the Danube River via NATO members Turkey, Bulgaria, and Romania, ultimately reaching Ukraine's Izmail port. The Izmail port, with limited capacity, has led to Romania's Black Sea port of Constanta becoming a hub for Ukrainian grain transit.
Currently, Constanta port exports about 2.5 million tons of Ukrainian grain per month, aiming to increase to 4 million tons. An explosion occurred outside one of the port's docks on Monday, believed to have been caused by a sea mine, marking the first such explosion in Romanian waters since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began. No injuries were reported from the explosion, and while authorities remain uncertain about the mine's origin, both Russia and Ukraine have deployed sea mines in the Black Sea.
Following Russia's warning on Sunday, shipping companies fear rising insurance costs for Black Sea operations. Insurance insiders mentioned that, as of Monday, Black Sea shipping war risk premiums hadn't increased, but damages or sinkings would immediately drive prices up.
The vessel that received the warning shot from Russia was en route to Ukraine's Izmail port along the Black Sea's western coast. Russia's Defense Ministry stated that the ship, flying a flag from Palau, ignored radio requests from the Russian Black Sea fleet's "Bekov" patrol vessel to halt for inspection.
In light of the terminated grain transport agreement, both Russia and Ukraine have issued safety warnings, with Russia considering ships heading to Ukrainian ports via the Black Sea as potential military supply vessels.
On July 30, the U.S.-based War Studies Institute reported that three civilian cargo ships successfully reached Ukraine's Izmail port, unobstructed by Russia. These ships hailed from Israel, Greece, and were registered in Turkey and Georgia. NATO dispatched unarmed aircraft and drones to monitor any potential Russian actions in the Black Sea.
The Institute had previously assessed that despite prior warnings, Russia seemed "unwilling or unable" to forcibly intercept neutral ships heading to Ukraine via the Black Sea.
Last week, Ukraine announced the formation of a "humanitarian corridor" in the Black Sea, aiming to free about 60 commercial vessels stranded in Ukrainian Black Sea ports since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began. Russia's warning action last Sunday completely overturned Ukraine's plans and the War Studies Institute's assessment.
Given the Black Sea impasse, the U.S. and Ukraine view Turkey as the only power capable of persuading Russia to return to the grain transport agreement.
Last month, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken expressed hope for Turkey to resume its leadership role in restarting the Black Sea grain agreement to stabilize global grain prices. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Kuleba recently referred to Erdogan as the "only" individual capable of convincing Russia to re-enter the grain agreement.
Turkey maintains robust collaborations with Russia in areas such as Syria, arms, and energy, making it one of the few NATO members that haven't imposed sanctions on Russia. Following interruptions in Russia's natural gas supply to the EU, Turkey also agreed to construct a natural gas hub in cooperation with Russia to potentially supply the EU in the future.
Turkey occupies a unique position in the Black Sea. Besides Russia, Ukraine, and Georgia, the other Black Sea countries are NATO members, with Turkey controlling the sole passage from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean.
According to the 1936 Montreux Convention, Turkey controls the straits leading to the Black Sea. While commercial ships can freely navigate during peacetime, wartime restrictions apply.
Following the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Turkey adhered to the Montreux Convention by barring military vessels from entering the Black Sea, effectively blocking NATO warships.
By the end of August, Erdogan will meet with Putin in Turkey, where the revival of the grain transport agreement is the main agenda. Erdogan has publicly committed to efforts in restarting the agreement, but the success hinges on Western nations fulfilling their promises.
When the grain transport agreement was signed, the UN and Russia also agreed to assist Russia in normal exports of its goods to the West. However, after the U.S. and EU introduced sanctions on Russia, Moscow viewed the broken promise as a "breach of trust."
With Erdogan's meeting on the horizon, both the U.S. and Ukraine hope Turkey will strike a deal to restore regular grain exports, stabilizing global grain prices and easing tensions in the Black Sea.
In conclusion, the Black Sea situation is a tense and intricate geopolitical puzzle. As Russia and Ukraine are at odds, their surrounding nations are caught in the crossfire, affecting commerce, global grain prices, and potentially, world peace. Turkey, with its unique geographic and political position, is viewed as a potential mediator in the situation. The world watches closely, hoping for a resolution that benefits all parties involved.
